Birmingham Vs Nott’m Forest

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Birmingham and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.2 3.16 3.69 2.42 1.61
Estim 2.36 3.57 3.38 2.25 1.8
Value % -3.08 -3.63 2.49 3.12 -6.56



Basic Data and latest results


Birmingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 4 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 0 2 1 2
At Home 1 2 2 33 2 2 1 4




Birmingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep QPR A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Preston H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Peterboro A 0 3 L O Ng
15 Sep Fulham H 1 4 L O Gg
10 Sep Derby H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Barnsley A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Luton A 5 0 W O Ng
18 Aug Bournemouth H 0 2 L U Ng



Nott’m Forest basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 4 4 2 3




Nott’m Forest latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Barnsley A 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Millwall H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Huddersfield A 2 0 W U Ng
15 Sep Middlesbrough H 0 2 L U Ng
12 Sep Cardiff H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Derby A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Stoke A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Aug Blackburn H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Birmingham is -0.385 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.059.
  • The home dynamic for the Birmingham is -0.224 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nott’m Forest is 0.096.
  • The offensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.554 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.227 and for the Nott’m Forest is -0.597.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Birmingham 25% 38% 21% 17%
Nott’m Forest 34% 38% 18% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.27 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Birmingham to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.3 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.31
1 4.57 2-3 2.07
2 3.94 4+ 4.65
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 6.99 Un 1.5 3.31
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.65
NoG 2 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.38 3.64 3.28
2-3 goals 2.37 3.41 3.51
4+ goals 2.29 3.91 3.26
Ov 1.5 2.35 3.55 3.43
Un 1.5 2.38 3.64 3.28
Ov 2.5 1.94 8.09 2.76
Un 2.5 2.84 2.47 4.12
Ov 3.5 2.29 3.91 3.26
Un 3.5 2.37 3.49 3.42
Goal-Goal 2.92 2.55 3.77
No Goal 1.97 6.01 3.06
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.09 6.55 2.71
NG+Un 2.5 2.11 6.01 3.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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