Blackpool Vs Blackburn

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Blackpool and Blackburn for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.92 3.33 2.46 2.01 1.85
Estim 2.99 3.72 2.53 2.18 1.85
Value % -0.8 -3.15 -1.12 -3.88 0



Basic Data and latest results


Blackpool basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 0 3 40 2 3 1 4




Blackpool latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Hull A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Barnsley H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Middlesbrough A 2 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Huddersfield H 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Fulham H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Millwall A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Bournemouth A 2 2 D O Gg
17 Aug Coventry H 0 1 L U Ng



Blackburn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 3 1 40 4 4 2 3




Blackburn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Huddersfield A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Cardiff H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Barnsley A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Sep Hull H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Luton H 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Middlesbrough A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug West Brom H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Aug Nott’m Forest A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Blackpool is 0.207 and for the Blackburn is 0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the Blackpool is -0.161 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is -0.048.
  • The offensive ability for the Blackpool is 0.554 and for the Blackburn is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackpool is -0.227 and for the Blackburn is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Blackpool 33% 34% 18% 15%
Blackburn 30% 31% 24% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.15 goals and Blackburn to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.14 goals and Blackburn to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.3
1 4.9 2-3 2.13
2 4.22 4+ 4.41
3 4.29 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.3
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.17
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 4.41
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.97 3.06 2.97
2-3 goals 3.11 4.48 2.2
4+ goals 2.77 3.44 2.87
Ov 1.5 2.99 4.08 2.38
Un 1.5 2.97 3.06 2.97
Ov 2.5 2.54 6.97 2.16
Un 2.5 3.51 2.65 2.97
Ov 3.5 2.77 3.44 2.87
Un 3.5 3.06 3.79 2.45
Goal-Goal 3.45 2.74 2.9
No Goal 2.67 5.36 2.28
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.68 5.52 2.25
NG+Un 2.5 2.82 5.36 2.39



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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