Bologna Vs Lazio

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bologna and Lazio for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.3 3.7 2.14 1.63 2.33
Estim 2.65 3.42 3.02 2.58 1.63
Value % 7.43 2.21 -13.62 -22.59 18.43



Basic Data and latest results


Bologna basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1




Bologna latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Empoli A 2 4 L O Gg
21 Sep Genoa H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Inter A 1 6 L O Gg
13 Sep Verona H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Atalanta A 0 0 D U Ng
22 Aug Salernitana H 3 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Lazio basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2




Lazio latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Roma H 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep Torino A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Cagliari H 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Milan A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Spezia H 6 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Empoli A 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bologna is -0.074 and for the Lazio is 0.319.
  • The home dynamic for the Bologna is 0.584 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lazio is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Bologna is 0.585 and for the Lazio is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bologna is -0.288 and for the Lazio is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bologna 36% 30% 25% 9%
Lazio 53% 0% 37% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.23 goals and Lazio to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.08 goals and Lazio to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 5.29 0-1 2.89
1 6.37 2-3 2.17
2 3.76 4+ 5.21
3 5.13 Ov 1.5 1.53
4 8.13 Un 1.5 2.89
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.58
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 1.63
Gg 3.32 Ov 3.5 5.21
NoG 1.43 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.19 1.83 -346
2-3 goals 2.52 -461 1.65
4+ goals 5.49 1.86 3.56
Ov 1.5 3 6.4 1.96
Un 1.5 2.19 1.83 -346
Ov 2.5 4.61 3.76 1.93
Un 2.5 2.1 3.26 4.64
Ov 3.5 5.49 1.86 3.56
Un 3.5 2.37 4.29 2.9
Goal-Goal 8.85 2.95 1.82
No Goal 2.04 3.69 4.18
G-G+Ov 2.5 8.88 2.93 1.83
NG+Un 2.5 2.1 3.69 4.64



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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