Bolton Vs Shrewsbury

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bolton and Shrewsbury for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.61 4.35 2.06 1.78
Estim 1.92 3.94 4.44 2.1 1.91
Value % -2.86 -2.32 -0.47 -0.92 -3.82



Basic Data and latest results


Bolton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 2 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2
At Home 1 2 1 42 2 3 2 2




Bolton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Charlton A 4 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Sunderland A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Rotherham H 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Ipswich A 5 2 W O Gg
06 Sep Burton H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Cambridge A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Oxford H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Lincoln A 1 0 W U Ng



Shrewsbury basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 1 3 8 1 4 0 4




Shrewsbury latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Wycombe H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep AFC Wimbledon H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Sheffield Weds A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Crewe H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep Accrington A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Gillingham H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Plymouth H 0 3 L O Ng
17 Aug Portsmouth A 0 1 L U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Bolton (4-2-3-1) Shrewsbury (3-4-2-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Joel Dixon GK Marko Marosi GK
Declan John DL Ethan Ebanks-Landell DC
Ricardo Santos DC Aaron Pierre DC
Alex Baptiste DC Matthew Pennington DC
Gethin Jones DR Luke Leahy DML
Kieran Lee DMC David Davis MC
MJ Williams DMC Josh Vela MC
Elias Kachunga AML Elliott Bennett DMR
Antoni Sarcevic AMC Shaun Whalley AMC
Oladapo Afolayan AMR Ryan Bowman AMC
Eoin Doyle FW Sam Cosgrove FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Bolton news and injuries


Lloyd Isgrove is likely to miss out with a head injury once again and Bolton could therefore go with the same team that won impressively at Charlton.
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Injured player Status
Lloyd Isgrove Out
Liam Edwards Out
Xavier Amaechi Out



Shrewsbury news and injuries


Steve Cotterill could shuffle his pack after the quick turnaround from Tuesday.
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Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Shrewsbury’s last 4 away games (League One).
  • Shrewsbury have failed to win their last 5 away matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bolton is -0.133 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.022.
  • The home dynamic for the Bolton is -0.059 and the dynamic as a guest for the Shrewsbury is -0.72.
  • The offensive ability for the Bolton is -0.793 and for the Shrewsbury is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bolton is -0.657 and for the Shrewsbury is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bolton 18% 34% 28% 20%
Shrewsbury 39% 35% 16% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.56 goals and Shrewsbury to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.5 goals and Shrewsbury to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.49 0-1 3.79
1 5.13 2-3 1.96
2 3.85 4+ 4.39
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.76 Un 1.5 3.79
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.1
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.91
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.39
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.98 3.83 4.26
2-3 goals 1.77 4.21 5.09
4+ goals 2.28 3.51 3.62
Ov 1.5 1.9 3.96 4.52
Un 1.5 1.98 3.83 4.26
Ov 2.5 1.72 7.34 3.53
Un 2.5 2.15 2.76 5.82
Ov 3.5 2.28 3.51 3.62
Un 3.5 1.84 4.07 4.77
Goal-Goal 2.51 2.7 4.3
No Goal 1.55 7.22 4.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.91 5.88 3.26
NG+Un 2.5 1.65 7.22 4.48



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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