Bradford Vs Rochdale

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bradford and Rochdale for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.12 3.52 3.33 1.89 1.93
Estim 2.27 3.62 3.53 2.19 1.84
Value % -3.12 -0.78 -1.7 -7.25 2.53



Basic Data and latest results


Bradford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 6 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 2 2 0 67 4 4 2 2




Bradford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Barrow H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Salford A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Walsall H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Leyton Orient A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Mansfield A 3 2 W O Gg
17 Aug Stevenage H 4 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Oldham H 2 1 W O Gg



Rochdale basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Away 2 1 1 58 4 4 3 1




Rochdale latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Oldham H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Mansfield A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Tranmere H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Port Vale A 3 2 W O Gg
27 Aug Colchester H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Northampton A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Forest Green H 1 2 L O Gg
14 Aug Scunthorpe H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bradford is -0.385 and for the Rochdale is 0.274.
  • The home dynamic for the Bradford is 0.435 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.28.
  • The offensive ability for the Bradford is 0.098 and for the Rochdale is 0.442.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -1 and for the Rochdale is -0.597.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bradford 22% 38% 21% 18%
Rochdale 33% 37% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.49 goals and Rochdale to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Bradford to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.35 goals and Rochdale to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.5
1 4.74 2-3 2.02
2 3.88 4+ 4.59
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.9 Un 1.5 3.5
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.84
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 4.59
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.23 3.81 3.45
2-3 goals 2.38 3.49 3.4
4+ goals 2.1 3.63 4.04
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.53 3.57
Un 1.5 2.23 3.81 3.45
Ov 2.5 1.88 7.6 2.96
Un 2.5 2.75 2.51 4.22
Ov 3.5 2.1 3.63 4.04
Un 3.5 2.33 3.6 3.41
Goal-Goal 2.85 2.55 3.88
No Goal 1.87 6.45 3.23
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.07 6.23 2.81
NG+Un 2.5 2.03 6.45 3.12



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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