Brighton Vs Arsenal

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Brighton and Arsenal for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3 3.24 2.54 2.06 1.81
Estim 1.65 4.15 6.49 2.24 1.81
Value % 27.27 -6.77 -23.96 -3.9 0



Basic Data and latest results


Brighton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2




Brighton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Crystal Palace A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Leicester H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Brentford A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Everton H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Watford H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Burnley A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Arsenal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 3 4 2 4
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Away 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2




Arsenal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Tottenham H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Burnley A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Norwich H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Man City A 0 5 L O Ng
22 Aug Chelsea H 0 2 L U Ng
13 Aug Brentford A 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Brighton (4-3-1-2) Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Robert S?nchez GK Aaron Ramsdale GK
Marc Cucurella DL Kieran Tierney DL
Lewis Dunk DC Gabriel Magalh?es DC
Shane Duffy DC Ben White DC
Jo?l Veltman DR Takehiro Tomiyasu DR
Adam Lallana MC Albert Sambi Lokonga DMC
Yves Bissouma MC Thomas Partey DMC
Pascal Gro? MC Emile Smith Rowe AML
Leandro Trossard AMC Martin ?degaard AMC
Aaron Connolly FW Bukayo Saka AMR
Neal Maupay FW Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Brighton news and injuries


Yves Bissouma didn’t recover in time to face Crystal Palace on Monday and Brighton are sweating on his availability to face Arsenal.
Steven Alzate is not expected to return until after the international break along with Adam Webster. Ex-Arsenal forward Danny Welbeck may well miss out against his old club after suffering a hamstring injury on Monday. .


Injured player Status
Adam Webster Out
Steven Alzate Out
Yves Bissouma Doubtful
Enock Mwepu Doubtful
Danny Welbeck Doubtful



Arsenal news and injuries



However, Albert Sambi Lokonga is perhaps more likely to take Xhaka’s place in the team in an otherwise unchanged Arsenal XI. Emile Smith Rowe or Martin Odegaard may drop deeper to cover for Xhaka’s absence with Nicolas Pepe or Alexandre Lacazette coming into the side. . Granit Xhaka is out for the best part of three months with knee ligament damage suffered in last weekend’s 3-1 win over Tottenham.


Injured player Status
Granit Xhaka Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Arsenal have won their last 3 matches (Premier League).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Brighton is 0.481 and for the Arsenal is 0.111.
  • The home dynamic for the Brighton is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arsenal is -0.264.
  • The offensive ability for the Brighton is 0.554 and for the Arsenal is -0.263.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Brighton is -0.253 and for the Arsenal is -0.167.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Brighton 12% 38% 28% 22%
Arsenal 46% 36% 14% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.14 goals and Arsenal to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.59 goals and Arsenal to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Brighton to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.86 0-1 3.66
1 4.61 2-3 1.87
2 3.57 4+ 5.26
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 7.41 Un 1.5 3.66
5 22.73 Ov 2.5 2.24
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 5.26
NoG 1.91 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.58 4.87 6.2
2-3 goals 1.64 4 7.15
4+ goals 1.81 3.8 5.43
Ov 1.5 1.68 3.95 6.6
Un 1.5 1.58 4.87 6.2
Ov 2.5 1.47 8.92 4.8
Un 2.5 1.83 2.91 9.07
Ov 3.5 1.81 3.8 5.43
Un 3.5 1.62 4.26 6.8
Goal-Goal 2.32 2.59 5.47
No Goal 1.31 9.34 7.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 6.84 3.93
NG+Un 2.5 1.39 9.34 6.87



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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