Burgos Vs Mirandes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Burgos and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.24 3.16 3.32 2.35 1.62
Estim 2.32 3.55 3.48 2.4 1.72
Value % -1.54 -3.48 -1.38 -0.89 -3.59



Basic Data and latest results


Burgos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 2 3 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 1 1 1 2




Burgos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Ibiza A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Sep Las Palmas H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Amorebieta A 2 2 D O Gg
05 Sep Valladolid H 3 0 W O Ng
29 Aug Eibar H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Aug Leganes A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Sp Gijon A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Mirandes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 6 5 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1




Mirandes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Leganes H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Tenerife A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Alcorcon H 1 3 L O Gg
05 Sep Las Palmas H 4 2 W O Gg
28 Aug Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Aug Amorebieta H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Aug Malaga A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Burgos is -0.185 and for the Mirandes is -0.037.
  • The home dynamic for the Burgos is 0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mirandes is 0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Burgos is -0.865 and for the Mirandes is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Burgos is 0.116 and for the Mirandes is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Burgos 26% 35% 25% 14%
Mirandes 36% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burgos to score 1.24 goals and Mirandes to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burgos to score 1.26 goals and Mirandes to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.75 0-1 3.17
1 4.5 2-3 2.01
2 3.73 4+ 5.32
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 7.81 Un 1.5 3.17
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.39
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 5.32
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.52 3.39 3.25
2-3 goals 2.18 3.86 3.53
4+ goals 2.41 3.13 3.76
Ov 1.5 2.24 3.63 3.59
Un 1.5 2.52 3.39 3.25
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.97 2.99
Un 2.5 2.74 2.63 3.94
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.13 3.76
Un 3.5 2.3 3.66 3.42
Goal-Goal 2.82 2.52 4.03
No Goal 2 5.65 3.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 5.78 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.13 5.65 3.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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