In this article I will analyze the game between Burnley and Norwich for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Burnley basic data
Burnley latest results
Norwich basic data
Norwich latest results
|21 Aug||Man City||A||0||5||L||O||Ng|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Burnley (4-4-2)||Norwich (3-5-2)|
|Nick Pope||GK||Tim Krul||GK|
|Charlie Taylor||DL||Ben Gibson||DC|
|Ben Mee||DC||Grant Hanley||DC|
|James Tarkowski||DC||Ozan Kabak||DC|
|Matthew Lowton||DR||Dimitris Giannoulis||DML|
|Dwight McNeil||ML||Pierre Lees-Melou||MC|
|Josh Brownhill||MC||Mathias Normann||MC|
|Ashley Westwood||MC||Billy Gilmour||MC|
|J?hann Gudmundsson||MR||Max Aarons||DMR|
|Chris Wood||FW||Teemu Pukki||FW|
|Ashley Barnes||FW||Joshua Sargent||FW|
Burnley news and injuries
A minor set-back is expected to keep him out for club and country for a few more weeks.
Wayne Hennessey was also back from injury to warm the bench. Jay Rodriguez looks set to miss out as well with a similar problem. Connor Roberts was surprisingly named in the Wales squad for the upcoming internationals despite not featuring for Burnley this season. Chris Wood has five goals in four Premier League starts against Norwich.
Matej Vydra is expected to make the matchday squad on Saturday, with Ashley Barnes also an option to lead the line. Maxwel Cornet scored on his full Burnley debut last weekend but is set to miss out here with a hamstring injury. .
Aaron Lennon or Johann Gudmundsson will likely replace Cornet in the starting XI on Saturday. Josh Brownhill was fit to start in Burnley’s 2-2 draw with Leicester last weekend and should keep his place in midfield here.
Norwich news and injuries
Billy Gilmour was surprisingly an unused substitute against Everton last weekend and will push for a recall here. Todd Cantwell has missed Norwich’s last two matches due to personal reasons but should return here.
Manchester United loanee Brandon Williams has been booked in successive league appearances and may drop out of the side here for Dimitris Giannoulis. .
Betting information and prediction
- Norwich have lost their last 16 matches (Premier League).
- Norwich have failed to score in 13 of their last 16 matches (Premier League).
- Norwich have been losing at both half time and full time in 7 of their last 9 away matches (Premier League).
- Burnley have failed to win their last 13 home matches (Premier League).
- Norwich have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches (Premier League).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Burnley is -0.644 and for the Norwich is -1.
- The home dynamic for the Burnley is -0.647 and the dynamic as a guest for the Norwich is -0.96.
- The offensive ability for the Burnley is 0.067 and for the Norwich is -0.863.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -1 and for the Norwich is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.66 goals and Norwich to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Burnley to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.78 goals and Norwich to score 0.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Burnley to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|