Cadiz Vs Valencia

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cadiz and Valencia for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.33 3.14 2.42 2.43 1.59
Estim 2.99 3.97 2.42 1.75 2.33
Value % 3.41 -6.66 0 15.99 -19.97



Basic Data and latest results


Cadiz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 0 2 2 17 2 3 1 3




Cadiz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Vallecano A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Barcelona H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Sep Celta A 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Sociedad H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Osasuna H 2 3 L O Gg
20 Aug Betis A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Levante H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Valencia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1




Valencia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Ath Bilbao H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Sevilla A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Real Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Osasuna A 4 1 W O Gg
27 Aug Alaves H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Granada A 1 1 D U Gg
13 Aug Getafe H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Cadiz (4-3-3) Valencia (4-4-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Jerem?as Ledesma GK Jasper Cillessen GK
Alfonso Espino DL Toni Lato DL
Varazdat Haroyan DC Omar Alderete DC
Juan Cala DC Gabriel Paulista DC
Carlos Akapo DR Dimitri Foulquier DR
Tom?s Alarc?n MC Hugo Duro ML
Jens Jonsson MC Daniel Wass MC
Alberto Perea MC Hugo Guillam?n MC
Rub?n Sobrino FWL Yunus Musah MR
?lvaro Negredo FW Gon?alo Guedes FW
Salvi S?nchez FWR Marcos Andr? FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Cadiz news and injuries


Jon Ander Garrido underwent an operation over the summer and remains out, while Jose Mari is nearing a return from a quad injury, though he has been a doubt for more than a week. . Florian Andone led the line last time out, though to little avail.
Alvaro Negredo is expected to come back in here, while Ruben Sobrino is expected to replace Santiago Arzamendia on the left.


Injured player Status
Jon Ander Garrido Out
Fali Out
Jos? Mari Doubtful



Valencia news and injuries



Jasper Cilissen has regained his spot as the starting goalkeeper. The same applies for Carlos Soler. . Maxi Gomez was sent off last time out, but Marcos Andre scored and was likely to start anyway. Jose Luis Gaya is out until around the middle of October, while Denis Cheryshev won’t return until after the international break.
Thierry Correia is nearing a return, but he remains a doubt here, and the same applies to Cristiano Piccini.


Injured player Status
Jos? Gay? Out
Denis Cheryshev Out
Carlos Soler Out
Maximiliano G?mez Out
Cristiano Piccini Doubtful
Thierry Correia Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Valencia have failed to win 12 of their last 13 away matches (LaLiga).
  • Cadiz have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches (LaLiga).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cadiz is -0.333 and for the Valencia is -0.052.
  • The home dynamic for the Cadiz is -0.506 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valencia is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Cadiz is 0.036 and for the Valencia is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cadiz is -0.571 and for the Valencia is -0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cadiz 28% 26% 32% 14%
Valencia 25% 26% 25% 24%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 0.96 goals and Valencia to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.31 goals and Valencia to score 1.47 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 4.78
1 7.25 2-3 2.13
2 4.55 4+ 3.12
3 4 Ov 1.5 1.27
4 5.62 Un 1.5 4.78
5 9.09 Ov 2.5 1.75
6+ 31.25 Un 2.5 2.33
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 3.12
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.47


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.22 2.94 2.86
2-3 goals 2.35 6.91 2.33
4+ goals 4.57 2.83 2.34
Ov 1.5 2.93 4.36 2.33
Un 1.5 3.22 2.94 2.86
Ov 2.5 3.02 5.04 2.13
Un 2.5 2.94 3.09 2.98
Ov 3.5 4.57 2.83 2.34
Un 3.5 2.56 4.88 2.47
Goal-Goal 3.49 2.97 2.66
No Goal 2.55 6.51 2.2
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.05 4.15 2.32
NG+Un 2.5 2.47 6.51 2.51



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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