Cardiff Vs Reading

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cardiff and Reading for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.05 3.51 3.61 1.96 1.88
Estim 2.76 3.69 2.73 2.01 1.99
Value % -12.55 -1.39 8.93 -1.27 -2.94



Basic Data and latest results


Cardiff basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 3 6 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1
At Home 1 1 3 27 3 5 3 2




Cardiff latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep West Brom H 0 4 L O Ng
25 Sep Blackburn A 1 5 L O Gg
18 Sep Bournemouth H 0 1 L U Ng
15 Sep Coventry A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Nott’m Forest A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Bristol City H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Millwall H 3 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Peterboro A 2 2 D O Gg



Reading basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 0 4 20 3 5 4 1




Reading latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Derby A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Middlesbrough H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Fulham A 2 1 W O Gg
14 Sep Peterboro H 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep QPR H 3 3 D O Gg
28 Aug Huddersfield A 0 4 L O Ng
21 Aug Coventry A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Aug Bristol City H 2 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cardiff is -0.704 and for the Reading is 0.185.
  • The home dynamic for the Cardiff is -0.49 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is -0.592.
  • The offensive ability for the Cardiff is -0.482 and for the Reading is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cardiff is -1 and for the Reading is -0.571.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cardiff 27% 34% 26% 14%
Reading 27% 32% 29% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.5 goals and Reading to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.27 goals and Reading to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 4.05
1 5.68 2-3 1.98
2 3.94 4+ 4.03
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.25 Un 1.5 4.05
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 4.03
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.74 3.48 2.87
2-3 goals 2.69 4.63 2.43
4+ goals 2.92 2.73 3.44
Ov 1.5 2.76 3.77 2.69
Un 1.5 2.74 3.48 2.87
Ov 2.5 2.43 5.48 2.46
Un 2.5 3.17 2.78 3.07
Ov 3.5 2.92 2.73 3.44
Un 3.5 2.71 4.18 2.56
Goal-Goal 3.2 2.69 3.16
No Goal 2.37 6.51 2.36
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.55 4.71 2.52
NG+Un 2.5 2.48 6.51 2.4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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