Carlisle Vs Forest Green

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Carlisle and Forest Green for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.24 3.41 2.2 1.97 1.83
Estim 3.07 3.65 2.5 2.21 1.82
Value % 1.71 -1.93 -5.45 -5.51 0.3



Basic Data and latest results


Carlisle basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 6 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 3 0 50 3 3 2 2




Carlisle latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Sutton A 0 4 L O Ng
18 Sep Scunthorpe H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Salford H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Hartlepool A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Leyton Orient H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Aug Port Vale A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Swindon A 2 1 W O Gg



Forest Green basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 3 2 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2
At Away 3 1 0 83 3 2 3 1




Forest Green latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Tranmere H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Stevenage A 4 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Northampton H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Exeter A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Port Vale H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Crawley Town H 6 3 W O Gg
17 Aug Rochdale A 2 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Walsall A 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Carlisle is -0.356 and for the Forest Green is 0.348.
  • The home dynamic for the Carlisle is 0.231 and the dynamic as a guest for the Forest Green is 0.736.
  • The offensive ability for the Carlisle is 0.451 and for the Forest Green is -0.442.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Carlisle is -1 and for the Forest Green is 0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Carlisle 33% 33% 22% 12%
Forest Green 26% 36% 24% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.06 goals and Forest Green to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Forest Green to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.12 goals and Forest Green to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.36 0-1 3.41
1 4.88 2-3 2.04
2 3.92 4+ 4.57
3 4.26 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.04 Un 1.5 3.41
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.2
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 4.57
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.37 3.33 2.48
2-3 goals 2.9 4.19 2.4
4+ goals 3.13 3.13 2.77
Ov 1.5 2.97 3.79 2.51
Un 1.5 3.37 3.33 2.48
Ov 2.5 2.52 6.49 2.23
Un 2.5 3.75 2.67 2.78
Ov 3.5 3.13 3.13 2.77
Un 3.5 3.06 3.82 2.43
Goal-Goal 3.31 2.64 3.14
No Goal 2.88 5.78 2.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.52 5.37 2.39
NG+Un 2.5 2.95 5.78 2.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *