Chelsea Vs Southampton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Chelsea and Southampton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.39 4.91 8.98 1.81 2.05
Estim 1.44 5.13 9.09 2.14 1.88
Value % -2.5 -0.87 -0.13 -8.52 4.41



Basic Data and latest results


Chelsea basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 2 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 2 1
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 1 2 1




Chelsea latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Man City H 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Tottenham A 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Aston Villa H 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Liverpool A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Aug Arsenal A 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Crystal Palace H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Southampton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 3 4 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 0 1 0 3
At Away 0 2 1 22 2 2 2 1




Southampton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Wolves H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Man City A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep West Ham H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Newcastle A 2 2 D O Gg
22 Aug Man United H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Everton A 1 3 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Chelsea (3-4-2-1) Southampton (4-4-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
?douard Mendy GK Alex McCarthy GK
Antonio R?diger DC Kyle Walker-Peters DL
Andreas Christensen DC Mohammed Salisu DC
Trevoh Chalobah DC Jan Bednarek DC
Ben Chilwell DML Valentino Livramento DR
Jorginho MC Moussa Djenepo ML
Mateo Kovacic MC James Ward-Prowse MC
C?sar Azpilicueta DMR Oriol Romeu MC
Mason Mount AMC Mohamed Elyounoussi MR
Timo Werner AMC Che Adams FW
Romelu Lukaku FW Adam Armstrong FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Chelsea news and injuries


N’Golo Kante misses out for Chelsea after testing positive for COVID-19 at the start of the week. England manager Gareth Southgate has revealed Reece James and Mason Mount both have decent chances of playing this weekend, in a boost for Thomas Tuchel.
Thiago Silva should be rested given the sharp turnaround between games. Trevoh Chalobah has a decent chance of starting as a result unless Cesar Azpilicueta is free to move inside.
Ben Chilwell will surely make his first Premier League appearance of the season after Marcos Alonso was hooked at half-time. .


Injured player Status
Christian Pulisic Out
N’Golo Kant? Out
Mason Mount Doubtful
Reece James Doubtful



Southampton news and injuries


Southampton signed Valentino Livramento outright from Chelsea, however, and he will start against his boyhood club. Theo Walcott and Stuart Armstrong are back in training. Armando Broja wasn’t expected to start anyway but he is ineligible here due to the terms in his loan agreement.
Moussa Djenepo is pushing for a start and could replace Nathan Redmond on the left wing here.
.


Injured player Status
William Smallbone Out
Jack Stephens Out
Armando Broja Out
Theo Walcott Doubtful
Stuart Armstrong Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Southampton have failed to score in their last 3 matches (Premier League).
  • Southampton have failed to win their last 8 away matches (Premier League).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Southampton’s last 3 games (Premier League).
  • Chelsea are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches against Southampton in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Chelsea is 0.444 and for the Southampton is -0.333.
  • The home dynamic for the Chelsea is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.296.
  • The offensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.451 and for the Southampton is -0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.485 and for the Southampton is -0.167.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Chelsea 10% 27% 42% 21%
Southampton 51% 32% 12% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 2.12 goals and Southampton to score 0.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.75 goals and Southampton to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20 0-1 4.59
1 5.95 2-3 1.68
2 3.17 4+ 5.38
3 3.55 Ov 1.5 1.28
4 7.63 Un 1.5 4.59
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.14
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.88
Gg 2.27 Ov 3.5 5.38
NoG 1.78 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.59 4.36 7.03
2-3 goals 1.29 6.94 12.7
4+ goals 1.98 3.15 5.64
Ov 1.5 1.4 5.4 9.79
Un 1.5 1.59 4.36 7.03
Ov 2.5 1.38 7.93 6.78
Un 2.5 1.5 3.92 12.69
Ov 3.5 1.98 3.15 5.64
Un 3.5 1.36 5.99 10.45
Goal-Goal 1.9 3.03 6.88
No Goal 1.21 11.22 11.94
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.53 6 5.53
NG+Un 2.5 1.26 11.22 10.64



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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