In this article I will analyze the game between Chelsea and Southampton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Chelsea basic data
Chelsea latest results
|25 Sep||Man City||H||0||1||L||U||Ng|
|11 Sep||Aston Villa||H||3||0||W||O||Ng|
|14 Aug||Crystal Palace||H||3||0||W||O||Ng|
Southampton basic data
Southampton latest results
|18 Sep||Man City||A||0||0||D||U||Ng|
|11 Sep||West Ham||H||0||0||D||U||Ng|
|22 Aug||Man United||H||1||1||D||U||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Chelsea (3-4-2-1)||Southampton (4-4-2)|
|?douard Mendy||GK||Alex McCarthy||GK|
|Antonio R?diger||DC||Kyle Walker-Peters||DL|
|Andreas Christensen||DC||Mohammed Salisu||DC|
|Trevoh Chalobah||DC||Jan Bednarek||DC|
|Ben Chilwell||DML||Valentino Livramento||DR|
|Mateo Kovacic||MC||James Ward-Prowse||MC|
|C?sar Azpilicueta||DMR||Oriol Romeu||MC|
|Mason Mount||AMC||Mohamed Elyounoussi||MR|
|Timo Werner||AMC||Che Adams||FW|
|Romelu Lukaku||FW||Adam Armstrong||FW|
Chelsea news and injuries
N’Golo Kante misses out for Chelsea after testing positive for COVID-19 at the start of the week. England manager Gareth Southgate has revealed Reece James and Mason Mount both have decent chances of playing this weekend, in a boost for Thomas Tuchel.
Thiago Silva should be rested given the sharp turnaround between games. Trevoh Chalobah has a decent chance of starting as a result unless Cesar Azpilicueta is free to move inside.
Ben Chilwell will surely make his first Premier League appearance of the season after Marcos Alonso was hooked at half-time. .
Southampton news and injuries
Southampton signed Valentino Livramento outright from Chelsea, however, and he will start against his boyhood club. Theo Walcott and Stuart Armstrong are back in training. Armando Broja wasn’t expected to start anyway but he is ineligible here due to the terms in his loan agreement.
Moussa Djenepo is pushing for a start and could replace Nathan Redmond on the left wing here.
Betting information and prediction
- Southampton have failed to score in their last 3 matches (Premier League).
- Southampton have failed to win their last 8 away matches (Premier League).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Southampton’s last 3 games (Premier League).
- Chelsea are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches against Southampton in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Chelsea is 0.444 and for the Southampton is -0.333.
- The home dynamic for the Chelsea is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.296.
- The offensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.451 and for the Southampton is -0.579.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.485 and for the Southampton is -0.167.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 2.12 goals and Southampton to score 0.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.75 goals and Southampton to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|