Cheltenham Vs Rotherham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Rotherham for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.84 3.41 1.97 2.12 1.73
Estim 2.72 3.79 2.72 1.97 2.03
Value % 10.72 -2.94 -14 3.59 -8.54



Basic Data and latest results


Cheltenham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 4 3 2 2




Cheltenham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Sunderland A 0 5 L O Ng
25 Sep Wigan A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Oxford H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Charlton A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Milton Keynes Dons H 1 1 D U Gg
27 Aug Burton A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Fleetwood Town A 2 3 L O Gg
17 Aug Ipswich H 2 1 W O Gg



Rotherham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Away 2 1 1 58 3 2 0 4




Rotherham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep AFC Wimbledon H 3 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Crewe H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Bolton A 2 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Lincoln A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Fleetwood Town H 2 4 L O Gg
28 Aug Doncaster H 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Sheffield Weds H 0 2 L U Ng
17 Aug Morecambe A 1 0 W U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Cheltenham (3-5-2) Rotherham (3-5-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Scott Flinders GK Viktor Johansson GK
Lewis Freestone DC Michael Ihiekwe DC
Matthew Pollock DC Rarmani Edmonds-Green DC
Sean Long DC Richard Wood DC
Chris Hussey DML Shane Ferguson DML
Liam Sercombe MC Chiedozie Ogbene MC
Ellis Chapman MC Daniel Barlaser MC
Conor Thomas MC Oliver Rathbone MC
Matty Blair DMR Jamie Lindsay DMR
Kyle Joseph FW Michael Smith FW
Alfie May FW William Grigg FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Cheltenham news and injuries


After watching his side suffer a 5-0 loss at Sunderland in midweek, Michael Duff is likely to freshen up his starting XI here.
.


Injured player Status



Rotherham news and injuries



. Wes Harding is available following a one-match suspension, but Paul Warne might be tempted to stick with the same side that dispatched AFC Wimbledon last time out.


Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Rotherham’s last 4 away games (League One).
  • Cheltenham are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Rotherham in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cheltenham is -0.052 and for the Rotherham is 0.356.
  • The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is 0.271 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rotherham is 0.296.
  • The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is -0.067 and for the Rotherham is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is -0.597 and for the Rotherham is 0.176.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cheltenham 29% 29% 24% 17%
Rotherham 24% 38% 25% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 0.9 goals and Rotherham to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Rotherham to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.29 goals and Rotherham to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.29 0-1 4
1 5.56 2-3 2.05
2 4.13 4+ 3.79
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4
5 13.16 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 3.79
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.36


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.52 3.57 2.29
2-3 goals 2.56 4.39 2.62
4+ goals 2.47 3.14 3.62
Ov 1.5 2.53 3.85 2.9
Un 1.5 3.52 3.57 2.29
Ov 2.5 2.13 6.06 2.74
Un 2.5 3.81 2.72 2.7
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.14 3.62
Un 3.5 2.82 4.07 2.5
Goal-Goal 2.73 2.77 3.67
No Goal 2.71 6.59 2.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.17 5.11 2.92
NG+Un 2.5 2.95 6.59 2.09



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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