Colchester Vs Salford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Colchester and Salford for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.98 3.25 2.42 2.21 1.71
Estim 2.79 3.66 2.71 2.17 1.86
Value % 2.29 -3.45 -4.42 0.83 -4.72



Basic Data and latest results


Colchester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 1 3 0 3




Colchester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Swindon A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Crawley Town H 0 1 L U Ng
10 Sep Barrow A 3 2 W O Gg
27 Aug Rochdale A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Oldham A 2 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Mansfield H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Northampton H 0 1 L U Ng
07 Aug Carlisle A 0 0 D U Ng



Salford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1




Salford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Northampton H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Tranmere A 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Bradford H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Carlisle A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Newport County H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Swindon H 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg
14 Aug Sutton H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Colchester is 0.133 and for the Salford is -0.163.
  • The home dynamic for the Colchester is -0.647 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Colchester is -0.067 and for the Salford is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Colchester is -0.545 and for the Salford is -0.253.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Colchester 31% 31% 26% 12%
Salford 28% 35% 23% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.06 goals and Salford to score 1.23 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.19 goals and Salford to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.36 0-1 3.5
1 5.05 2-3 2.03
2 3.95 4+ 4.46
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.5
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.46
NoG 1.97 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.25 3.25 2.6
2-3 goals 2.47 4.51 2.67
4+ goals 3.15 2.95 2.91
Ov 1.5 2.65 3.87 2.74
Un 1.5 3.25 3.25 2.6
Ov 2.5 2.35 6.09 2.44
Un 2.5 3.35 2.74 2.98
Ov 3.5 3.15 2.95 2.91
Un 3.5 2.71 3.95 2.65
Goal-Goal 3.06 2.68 3.34
No Goal 2.59 5.76 2.27
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.38 5.08 2.61
NG+Un 2.5 2.67 5.76 2.38



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *