Cremonese Vs Ternana

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cremonese and Ternana for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.04 3.27 3.63 1.99 1.83
Estim 2.13 3.79 3.73 2.17 1.85
Value % -2.07 -4.2 -0.74 -4.17 -0.59



Basic Data and latest results


Cremonese basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 1 2 1




Cremonese latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Vicenza A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Perugia H 0 3 L O Ng
19 Sep Parma A 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Cittadella H 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Monza A 0 1 L U Ng
22 Aug Lecce H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Ternana basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 0 1 1 17 2 2 1 1




Ternana latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Spal H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Parma H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Monza A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Pisa H 1 4 L O Gg
29 Aug Reggina A 2 3 L O Gg
22 Aug Brescia H 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cremonese is 0.333 and for the Ternana is -0.059.
  • The home dynamic for the Cremonese is 0.239 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ternana is -0.44.
  • The offensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.067 and for the Ternana is 0.611.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.142 and for the Ternana is -0.545.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cremonese 20% 39% 22% 18%
Ternana 38% 31% 20% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.47 goals and Ternana to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.39 goals and Ternana to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.41
1 4.67 2-3 2.06
2 4.03 4+ 4.5
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.04 Un 1.5 3.41
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.17
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.5
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.95 3.71 4.58
2-3 goals 2.15 3.98 3.52
4+ goals 2.39 3.52 3.36
Ov 1.5 2.22 3.83 3.47
Un 1.5 1.95 3.71 4.58
Ov 2.5 1.97 7.3 2.8
Un 2.5 2.29 2.69 5.2
Ov 3.5 2.39 3.52 3.36
Un 3.5 2.07 3.88 3.86
Goal-Goal 3.02 2.64 3.44
No Goal 1.67 6.48 4.06
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.27 5.83 2.58
NG+Un 2.5 1.78 6.48 4.03



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *