Crewe Vs Cambridge

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Crewe and Cambridge for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.31 3.35 3.08 2.06 1.79
Estim 2.59 3.66 2.93 2.07 1.94
Value % -4.68 -2.53 1.66 -0.23 -4.32



Basic Data and latest results


Crewe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 2 33 3 3 1 3




Crewe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Plymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Rotherham A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Morecambe H 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Burton H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Shrewsbury A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Charlton A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Accrington H 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Oxford A 0 1 L U Ng



Cambridge basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1




Cambridge latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Gillingham H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Fleetwood Town H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Portsmouth A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Lincoln H 1 5 L O Gg
28 Aug Bolton H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Burton H 3 0 W O Ng
17 Aug Plymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Accrington A 1 2 L O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Crewe (3-4-3) Cambridge (4-5-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Will J??skel?inen GK Dimitar Mitov GK
Luke Offord DC Jack Iredale DL
Donervon Daniels DC Jubril Okedina DC
Billy Sass-Davies DC Conor Masterson DC
Rio Adebisi DML George Williams DR
Luke Murphy MC James Brophy ML
Scott Robertson MC Liam O’Neil MC
Kayne Ramsay DMR Paul Digby MC
Callum Ainley FWL Adam May MC
Mikael Mandron FW Shilow Tracey MR
Scott Kashket FWR Joe Ironside FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Crewe news and injuries



. David Artell has no fresh injury concerns after the long trip to Plymouth on Tuesday.


Injured player Status



Cambridge news and injuries


Mark Bonner has no new injury worries here.
.


Injured player Status
Leon Davies Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Crewe’s last 10 games (League One).
  • Crewe have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Crewe is -0.148 and for the Cambridge is 0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Crewe is -0.271 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cambridge is 0.056.
  • The offensive ability for the Crewe is 0.617 and for the Cambridge is 0.442.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Crewe is -0.631 and for the Cambridge is -0.339.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Crewe 27% 34% 24% 16%
Cambridge 27% 37% 25% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.32 goals and Cambridge to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crewe to score 1.29 goals and Cambridge to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.8
1 5.26 2-3 2.01
2 3.95 4+ 4.15
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.41 Un 1.5 3.8
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 4.15
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.86 3.6 2.68
2-3 goals 2.55 4.01 2.79
4+ goals 2.41 3.17 3.71
Ov 1.5 2.5 3.69 3.04
Un 1.5 2.86 3.6 2.68
Ov 2.5 2.1 6.38 2.72
Un 2.5 3.31 2.62 3.17
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.17 3.71
Un 3.5 2.65 3.86 2.75
Goal-Goal 2.86 2.68 3.61
No Goal 2.33 6.38 2.41
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.2 5.41 2.78
NG+Un 2.5 2.51 6.38 2.4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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