In this article I will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Leicester for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Crystal Palace basic data
Crystal Palace latest results
|28 Aug||West Ham||A||2||2||D||O||Gg|
Leicester basic data
Leicester latest results
|11 Sep||Man City||H||0||1||L||U||Ng|
|23 Aug||West Ham||A||1||4||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Crystal Palace (4-3-3)||Leicester (4-2-3-1)|
|Vicente Guaita||GK||Kasper Schmeichel||GK|
|Tyrick Mitchell||DL||Ryan Bertrand||DL|
|Marc Gu?hi||DC||?aglar S?y?nc?||DC|
|Joachim Andersen||DC||Jonny Evans||DC|
|Joel Ward||DR||Ricardo Pereira||DR|
|James McArthur||MC||Youri Tielemans||DMC|
|Luka Milivojevic||MC||Wilfred Ndidi||DMC|
|Conor Gallagher||MC||Harvey Barnes||AML|
|Wilfried Zaha||FWL||James Maddison||AMC|
|Odsonne ?douard||FW||Ademola Lookman||AMR|
|Jordan Ayew||FWR||Jamie Vardy||FW|
Crystal Palace news and injuries
Summer signings Will Hughes and Michael Olise are still waiting for first-team opportunities but that is unlikely to change here. Luka Milivojevic and Cheikhou Kouyate are battling for the anchor spot in Palace’s midfield, while Christian Benteke and new signing Odsonne Edouard battle to lead the line. Crystal Palace have a settled backline but Patrick Vieira is still figuring out his best midfield and attack.
Leicester news and injuries
Jonny Evans didn’t travel for Thursday’s Europa League game suggesting he will instead start here. Wesley Fofana and James Justin remain sidelined for Brendan Rodgers’ side.
Kelechi Iheanacho missed out against Legia Warszawa, albeit not by design. He had to fly home from Poland due to issues with his passport.
Leicester’s fringe players did not grasp their opportunity in Europe and have not forced their way into Brendan Rodgers’ first-team plans. Wilfred Ndidi was suspended in midweek and he too will be fresh to start.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 8 of Leicester’s last 10 games (Premier League).
- Crystal Palace have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Leicester in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Crystal Palace is -0.148 and for the Leicester is -0.207.
- The home dynamic for the Crystal Palace is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leicester is -0.32.
- The offensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.316 and for the Leicester is 0.505.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.253 and for the Leicester is -0.682.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.1 goals and Leicester to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.58 goals and Leicester to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Crystal Palace to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|