Crystal Palace Vs Leicester

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Leicester for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.12 3.43 2.36 2.02 1.84
Estim 1.82 4.12 4.78 1.98 2.02
Value % 22.89 -4.88 -21.45 1 -4.84



Basic Data and latest results


Crystal Palace basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2




Crystal Palace latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Brighton H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Liverpool A 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Tottenham H 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug West Ham A 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Brentford H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Chelsea A 0 3 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Leicester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0




Leicester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Burnley H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Brighton A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Man City H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Norwich A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Aug West Ham A 1 4 L O Gg
14 Aug Wolves H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Crystal Palace (4-3-3) Leicester (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Vicente Guaita GK Kasper Schmeichel GK
Tyrick Mitchell DL Ryan Bertrand DL
Marc Gu?hi DC ?aglar S?y?nc? DC
Joachim Andersen DC Jonny Evans DC
Joel Ward DR Ricardo Pereira DR
James McArthur MC Youri Tielemans DMC
Luka Milivojevic MC Wilfred Ndidi DMC
Conor Gallagher MC Harvey Barnes AML
Wilfried Zaha FWL James Maddison AMC
Odsonne ?douard FW Ademola Lookman AMR
Jordan Ayew FWR Jamie Vardy FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Crystal Palace news and injuries


.
Summer signings Will Hughes and Michael Olise are still waiting for first-team opportunities but that is unlikely to change here. Luka Milivojevic and Cheikhou Kouyate are battling for the anchor spot in Palace’s midfield, while Christian Benteke and new signing Odsonne Edouard battle to lead the line. Crystal Palace have a settled backline but Patrick Vieira is still figuring out his best midfield and attack.


Injured player Status
Eberechi Eze Out
Nathan Ferguson Out



Leicester news and injuries


Jonny Evans didn’t travel for Thursday’s Europa League game suggesting he will instead start here. Wesley Fofana and James Justin remain sidelined for Brendan Rodgers’ side.
Kelechi Iheanacho missed out against Legia Warszawa, albeit not by design. He had to fly home from Poland due to issues with his passport.
Leicester’s fringe players did not grasp their opportunity in Europe and have not forced their way into Brendan Rodgers’ first-team plans. Wilfred Ndidi was suspended in midweek and he too will be fresh to start.
.


Injured player Status
Wesley Fofana Out
James Justin Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 8 of Leicester’s last 10 games (Premier League).
  • Crystal Palace have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Leicester in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Crystal Palace is -0.148 and for the Leicester is -0.207.
  • The home dynamic for the Crystal Palace is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leicester is -0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.316 and for the Leicester is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Crystal Palace is -0.253 and for the Leicester is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Crystal Palace 18% 28% 32% 22%
Leicester 38% 36% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.1 goals and Leicester to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.58 goals and Leicester to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Crystal Palace to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 4.18
1 5.85 2-3 1.94
2 3.95 4+ 4.13
3 3.8 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.29 Un 1.5 4.18
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 1.97 Ov 3.5 4.13
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.25 3.51 3.68
2-3 goals 1.6 5.11 5.61
4+ goals 2.05 3.32 4.75
Ov 1.5 1.72 4.36 5.3
Un 1.5 2.25 3.51 3.68
Ov 2.5 1.58 6.92 4.47
Un 2.5 2.16 2.91 5.18
Ov 3.5 2.05 3.32 4.75
Un 3.5 1.76 4.47 4.81
Goal-Goal 2.16 2.91 5.17
No Goal 1.57 7.21 4.45
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.73 5.56 4.14
NG+Un 2.5 1.71 7.21 4.12



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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