Dag And Red Vs Altrincham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Altrincham for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.63 4 4.97 1.78 2.08
Estim 1.88 4.15 4.37 1.97 2.03
Value % -8.16 -0.9 2.76 -5.42 1.18



Basic Data and latest results


Dag and Red basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 1 0 83 4 4 4 0




Dag and Red latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Solihull H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Wrexham A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Weymouth H 4 2 W O Gg
11 Sep King’s Lynn A 2 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Wealdstone H 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Barnet A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Bromley H 4 2 W O Gg
21 Aug Stockport A 3 1 W O Gg



Altrincham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 5 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2




Altrincham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep King’s Lynn H 4 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Notts County H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Wealdstone A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Dover Athletic H 3 2 W O Gg
30 Aug Halifax A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Torquay A 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Dag and Red is 0.481 and for the Altrincham is 0.356.
  • The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is 0.725 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is -0.376.
  • The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is 0.482 and for the Altrincham is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.682 and for the Altrincham is -0.571.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Dag and Red 25% 21% 27% 27%
Altrincham 38% 37% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.87 goals and Altrincham to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Dag and Red to win by 1.04 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.56 goals and Altrincham to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Dag and Red to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.73
1 5.78 2-3 2.08
2 4.48 4+ 3.97
3 3.88 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.1 Un 1.5 3.73
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 2.15 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 1.87 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.35 2.82 2.88
2-3 goals 1.59 6.17 4.81
4+ goals 1.69 3.76 7
Ov 1.5 1.62 5.06 5.39
Un 1.5 3.35 2.82 2.88
Ov 2.5 1.45 7.61 5.54
Un 2.5 2.71 2.84 3.58
Ov 3.5 1.69 3.76 7
Un 3.5 1.96 4.33 3.88
Goal-Goal 1.88 3.21 6.38
No Goal 1.88 5.63 3.43
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.56 5.79 5.32
NG+Un 2.5 2.28 5.63 3.01



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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