Derby Vs Swansea

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Derby and Swansea for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.57 3.09 2.98 2.42 1.58
Estim 1.98 3.73 4.42 2.16 1.86
Value % 11.59 -5.55 -10.93 4.97 -9.53



Basic Data and latest results


Derby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 4 1 5
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 3 0 60 4 3 1 4




Derby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Reading H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Sheffield United A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg
14 Sep West Brom A 0 0 D U Ng
10 Sep Birmingham A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Nott’m Forest H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Middlesbrough H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Aug Hull A 1 0 W U Ng



Swansea basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 5 4 4 1




Swansea latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Fulham A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Huddersfield H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Luton A 3 3 D O Gg
15 Sep Millwall H 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Hull H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Preston A 1 3 L O Gg
20 Aug Bristol City A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Stoke H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Derby is 0.037 and for the Swansea is -0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the Derby is 0.435 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is -0.432.
  • The offensive ability for the Derby is -0.378 and for the Swansea is 0.126.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.167 and for the Swansea is 0.142.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Derby 20% 35% 23% 22%
Swansea 36% 42% 12% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 1.13 goals and Swansea to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.47 goals and Swansea to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Derby to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.56
1 4.78 2-3 2.02
2 3.91 4+ 4.48
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.56
5 20.41 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.48
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.27 3.9 3.31
2-3 goals 1.89 3.37 5.7
4+ goals 1.86 4.55 4.13
Ov 1.5 1.88 3.67 5.1
Un 1.5 2.27 3.9 3.31
Ov 2.5 1.55 9.45 3.99
Un 2.5 2.58 2.45 4.88
Ov 3.5 1.86 4.55 4.13
Un 3.5 2.01 3.55 4.52
Goal-Goal 2.33 2.62 5.29
No Goal 1.7 6.76 3.78
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.66 7.47 3.77
NG+Un 2.5 1.88 6.76 3.55



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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