Doncaster Vs Milton Keynes Dons

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Doncaster and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.17 3.64 1.84 1.96 1.86
Estim 2.63 3.77 2.82 1.97 2.03
Value % 14.04 -0.95 -18.89 -0.26 -4.5



Basic Data and latest results


Doncaster basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2




Doncaster latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Ipswich A 0 6 L O Ng
25 Sep Plymouth A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Morecambe H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Wigan A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Rotherham A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Portsmouth H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Aug Accrington A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Aug Sheffield Weds A 0 2 L U Ng



Milton Keynes Dons basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 3 0 50 4 4 3 1




Milton Keynes Dons latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Fleetwood Town H 3 3 D O Gg
25 Sep Wycombe H 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Gillingham A 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Portsmouth H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Cheltenham A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Accrington H 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Ipswich A 2 2 D O Gg
17 Aug Charlton H 2 1 W O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Doncaster (4-3-3) Milton Keynes Dons (3-4-1-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Pontus Dahlberg GK Andrew Fisher GK
Tommy Rowe DL Dean Lewington DC
Tom Anderson DC Warren O’Hora DC
Ro-Shaun Williams DC Harry Darling DC
Kyle Knoyle DR Daniel Harvie ML
Ben Close MC Ethan Robson MC
Matthew Smith MC Matt O’Riley MC
Ethan Galbraith MC Peter Kioso MR
Jordy Hiwula-Mayifuila FWL Scott Twine AMC
Tiago Cukur FW Mohamed Eisa FW
Rodrigo Vilca FWR Troy Parrott FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Doncaster news and injuries


Jon Taylor and Fejiri Okenabirhie both continue to miss out for a Doncaster side that could ring the changes following their hammering at Ipswich.
.


Injured player Status
Jon Taylor Out
Fejiri Okenabirhie Out



Milton Keynes Dons news and injuries



. Having returned to the bench on Tuesday, Mo Eisa is pushing for his first start since August – and could replace Max Watters in the starting XI.


Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Doncaster have lost 9 of their last 11 matches (League One).
  • Doncaster have drawn 5 of their last 6 home matches against Milton Keynes Dons in all competitions.
  • Doncaster have been drawing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 6 home matches against Milton Keynes Dons in all competitions.
  • Doncaster have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches against Milton Keynes Dons in all competitions.
  • Milton Keynes Dons are undefeated in their last 8 matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Doncaster is -0.519 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.652.
  • The home dynamic for the Doncaster is 0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.28.
  • The offensive ability for the Doncaster is -0.347 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Doncaster is -0.288 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.116.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Doncaster 28% 30% 25% 17%
Milton Keynes Dons 25% 37% 24% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Doncaster to score 0.89 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.31 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 3.98
1 5.56 2-3 2.04
2 4.13 4+ 3.82
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.1 Un 1.5 3.98
5 13.33 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 3.82
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.35 3.54 2.39
2-3 goals 2.44 4.41 2.75
4+ goals 2.47 3.16 3.59
Ov 1.5 2.45 3.87 2.99
Un 1.5 3.35 3.54 2.39
Ov 2.5 2.09 6.13 2.78
Un 2.5 3.57 2.71 2.85
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.16 3.59
Un 3.5 2.69 4.07 2.61
Goal-Goal 2.7 2.77 3.71
No Goal 2.55 6.54 2.2
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.15 5.14 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.77 6.54 2.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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