In this article I will analyze the game between Doncaster and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Doncaster basic data
Doncaster latest results
|14 Aug||Sheffield Weds||A||0||2||L||U||Ng|
Milton Keynes Dons basic data
Milton Keynes Dons latest results
|28 Sep||Fleetwood Town||H||3||3||D||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Doncaster (4-3-3)||Milton Keynes Dons (3-4-1-2)|
|Pontus Dahlberg||GK||Andrew Fisher||GK|
|Tommy Rowe||DL||Dean Lewington||DC|
|Tom Anderson||DC||Warren O’Hora||DC|
|Ro-Shaun Williams||DC||Harry Darling||DC|
|Kyle Knoyle||DR||Daniel Harvie||ML|
|Ben Close||MC||Ethan Robson||MC|
|Matthew Smith||MC||Matt O’Riley||MC|
|Ethan Galbraith||MC||Peter Kioso||MR|
|Jordy Hiwula-Mayifuila||FWL||Scott Twine||AMC|
|Tiago Cukur||FW||Mohamed Eisa||FW|
|Rodrigo Vilca||FWR||Troy Parrott||FW|
Doncaster news and injuries
Jon Taylor and Fejiri Okenabirhie both continue to miss out for a Doncaster side that could ring the changes following their hammering at Ipswich.
Milton Keynes Dons news and injuries
. Having returned to the bench on Tuesday, Mo Eisa is pushing for his first start since August – and could replace Max Watters in the starting XI.
Betting information and prediction
- Doncaster have lost 9 of their last 11 matches (League One).
- Doncaster have drawn 5 of their last 6 home matches against Milton Keynes Dons in all competitions.
- Doncaster have been drawing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 6 home matches against Milton Keynes Dons in all competitions.
- Doncaster have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches against Milton Keynes Dons in all competitions.
- Milton Keynes Dons are undefeated in their last 8 matches (League One).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Doncaster is -0.519 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.652.
- The home dynamic for the Doncaster is 0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.28.
- The offensive ability for the Doncaster is -0.347 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Doncaster is -0.288 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.116.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
|Milton Keynes Dons||25%||37%||24%||13%|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Doncaster to score 0.89 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.31 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|