Eastleigh Vs Boreham Wood

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Boreham Wood for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.61 3.52 2.52 1.79 2.05
Estim 3.37 3.66 2.33 2 2
Value % -8.64 -1.09 3.24 -5.87 1.22



Basic Data and latest results


Eastleigh basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 6 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 4 3 1




Eastleigh latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Woking H 3 2 W O Gg
18 Sep Grimsby A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Dover Athletic H 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Barnet A 1 1 D U Gg
04 Sep King’s Lynn H 3 3 D O Gg
30 Aug Bromley A 0 3 L O Ng
28 Aug Wrexham H 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Boreham Wood basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0
At Away 3 0 1 75 4 2 2 2




Boreham Wood latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Yeovil H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Solihull A 1 3 L O Gg
14 Sep Halifax H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Bromley A 3 2 W O Gg
04 Sep Stockport H 0 0 D U Ng
30 Aug Dover Athletic A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Aldershot H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Weymouth A 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Eastleigh is 0.052 and for the Boreham Wood is 0.311.
  • The home dynamic for the Eastleigh is 0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boreham Wood is 0.44.
  • The offensive ability for the Eastleigh is 0.098 and for the Boreham Wood is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Eastleigh is -1 and for the Boreham Wood is -0.339.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Eastleigh 26% 43% 20% 11%
Boreham Wood 23% 33% 26% 19%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.32 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.15 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.67 0-1 4.08
1 5.41 2-3 1.98
2 3.92 4+ 3.98
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 5.99 Un 1.5 4.08
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.75 Ov 3.5 3.98
NoG 2.33 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.5 4.08 2.82
2-3 goals 3.73 3.52 2.23
4+ goals 3.98 3.54 2.15
Ov 1.5 3.81 3.53 2.2
Un 1.5 2.5 4.08 2.82
Ov 2.5 3.27 7.04 1.81
Un 2.5 3.5 2.46 3.25
Ov 3.5 3.98 3.54 2.15
Un 3.5 3.21 3.69 2.39
Goal-Goal 4.42 2.66 2.51
No Goal 2.57 7.17 2.12
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.31 6.01 1.88
NG+Un 2.5 2.5 7.17 2.32



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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