Eibar Vs Ibiza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Eibar and Ibiza for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.75 3.47 4.69 2.25 1.67
Estim 2.62 3.46 3.04 2.49 1.67
Value % -18.97 0.08 11.57 -4.28 0



Basic Data and latest results


Eibar basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 5 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2




Eibar latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Amorebieta A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Sp Gijon H 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Sociedad B A 3 2 W O Gg
04 Sep Leganes H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Burgos A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Ponferradina H 0 1 L U Ng
13 Aug Huesca A 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Ibiza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 4 0 56 6 5 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 0 3
At Away 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2




Ibiza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Burgos H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Oviedo H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Las Palmas A 1 1 D U Gg
05 Sep Amorebieta H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Leganes A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Malaga H 2 2 D O Gg
13 Aug Zaragoza A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Eibar is 0.37 and for the Ibiza is 0.348.
  • The home dynamic for the Eibar is 0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ibiza is 0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Eibar is 0.617 and for the Ibiza is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Eibar is -0.657 and for the Ibiza is -0.545.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Eibar 29% 36% 23% 11%
Ibiza 34% 36% 21% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.5 goals and Ibiza to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.15 goals and Ibiza to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10 0-1 3.05
1 4.39 2-3 2.02
2 3.69 4+ 5.62
3 4.48 Ov 1.5 1.49
4 8.13 Un 1.5 3.05
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.49
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.67
Gg 2.14 Ov 3.5 5.62
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.67 3.28 3.12
2-3 goals 2.49 3.8 2.98
4+ goals 2.87 3.02 3.12
Ov 1.5 2.58 3.56 3.01
Un 1.5 2.67 3.28 3.12
Ov 2.5 2.22 6.8 2.49
Un 2.5 2.97 2.6 3.59
Ov 3.5 2.87 3.02 3.12
Un 3.5 2.56 3.57 3.03
Goal-Goal 3.22 2.47 3.51
No Goal 2.24 5.33 2.73
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.32 5.71 2.53
NG+Un 2.5 2.32 5.33 2.81



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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