In this article I will analyze the game between Elche and Celta for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Elche basic data
Elche latest results
|22 Aug||Ath Madrid||A||0||1||L||U||Ng|
|16 Aug||Ath Bilbao||H||0||0||D||U||Ng|
Celta basic data
Celta latest results
|12 Sep||Real Madrid||A||2||5||L||O||Gg|
|28 Aug||Ath Bilbao||H||0||1||L||U||Ng|
|15 Aug||Ath Madrid||H||1||2||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Elche (4-3-1-2)||Celta (4-1-3-2)|
|Kiko Casilla||GK||Mat?as Dituro||GK|
|Johan Mojica||DL||Javi Gal?n||DL|
|Diego Gonz?lez||DC||Jeison Murillo||DC|
|Gonzalo Verd?||DC||N?stor Ara?jo||DC|
|Helibelton Palacios||DR||Hugo Mallo||DR|
|Ra?l Guti||MC||Renato Tapia||DMC|
|Pablo Piatti||AMC||Brais M?ndez||MC|
|Lucas P?rez||FW||Santi Mina||FW|
|Dar?o Benedetto||FW||Iago Aspas||FW|
Elche news and injuries
. Jony Alamo will miss out, his injury was a little worse than first feared, but there is no timescale on his injury.
Elche have been playing a 4-3-1-2 formation of late, and the same is expected here, with Pablo Piatti given more licence to roam and create ahead of the midfield three. Pedro Bigas remains out until November with a knee injury, while Lucas Boye is a doubt with an aductor issue, though he is nearing a return.
Celta news and injuries
. Nestor Araujo and Santi Mina are both doubts, but both are expected to be fit enough to start. Joeseph Aidoo is still a doubt having struggled to return from coronavirus over the last couple of weeks.
Eduardo Caudet has been very predictable with his team selection so far this season, and little change is expecting here.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Elche’s last 9 home games (LaLiga).
- Elche have drawn their last 3 home matches (LaLiga).
- Elche have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 home matches against Celta Vigo in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Elche is -0.356 and for the Celta is -0.096.
- The home dynamic for the Elche is -0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Celta is 0.024.
- The offensive ability for the Elche is 0.067 and for the Celta is 0.189.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Elche is -0.631 and for the Celta is 0.202.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.97 goals and Celta to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.54 goals and Celta to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|