Elche Vs Celta

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Elche and Celta for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.37 3.24 2.34 2.32 1.64
Estim 2.03 3.79 4.12 1.92 2.08
Value % 19.59 -4.48 -18.46 8.98 -12.9



Basic Data and latest results


Elche basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 3 0 33 2 2 0 3




Elche latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Sociedad A 0 1 L U Ng
22 Sep Villarreal A 1 4 L O Gg
18 Sep Levante H 1 1 D U Gg
13 Sep Getafe A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Sevilla H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Aug Ath Madrid A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Aug Ath Bilbao H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Celta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 3 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 1 2
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2




Celta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Granada H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Sep Levante A 2 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Cadiz H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Real Madrid A 2 5 L O Gg
28 Aug Ath Bilbao H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Aug Osasuna A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Ath Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Elche (4-3-1-2) Celta (4-1-3-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Kiko Casilla GK Mat?as Dituro GK
Johan Mojica DL Javi Gal?n DL
Diego Gonz?lez DC Jeison Murillo DC
Gonzalo Verd? DC N?stor Ara?jo DC
Helibelton Palacios DR Hugo Mallo DR
Ra?l Guti MC Renato Tapia DMC
Omar Mascarell MC Nolito MC
Fidel MC Denis Su?rez MC
Pablo Piatti AMC Brais M?ndez MC
Lucas P?rez FW Santi Mina FW
Dar?o Benedetto FW Iago Aspas FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Elche news and injuries


. Jony Alamo will miss out, his injury was a little worse than first feared, but there is no timescale on his injury.
Elche have been playing a 4-3-1-2 formation of late, and the same is expected here, with Pablo Piatti given more licence to roam and create ahead of the midfield three. Pedro Bigas remains out until November with a knee injury, while Lucas Boye is a doubt with an aductor issue, though he is nearing a return.


Injured player Status
Pedro Bigas Out
Jony ?lamo Out
Lucas Boy? Doubtful



Celta news and injuries


. Nestor Araujo and Santi Mina are both doubts, but both are expected to be fit enough to start. Joeseph Aidoo is still a doubt having struggled to return from coronavirus over the last couple of weeks.
Eduardo Caudet has been very predictable with his team selection so far this season, and little change is expecting here.


Injured player Status
N?stor Ara?jo Doubtful
Santi Mina Doubtful
Joseph Aidoo Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Elche’s last 9 home games (LaLiga).
  • Elche have drawn their last 3 home matches (LaLiga).
  • Elche have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 home matches against Celta Vigo in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Elche is -0.356 and for the Celta is -0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Elche is -0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Celta is 0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Elche is 0.067 and for the Celta is 0.189.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Elche is -0.631 and for the Celta is 0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Elche 19% 32% 22% 26%
Celta 29% 45% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.97 goals and Celta to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.54 goals and Celta to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.86 0-1 4.24
1 5.56 2-3 2.03
2 4.1 4+ 3.69
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.43 Un 1.5 4.24
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 1.93
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.08
Gg 1.74 Ov 3.5 3.69
NoG 2.36 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.54 4.21 2.71
2-3 goals 2.06 3.35 4.64
4+ goals 1.69 4.37 5.53
Ov 1.5 1.91 3.65 4.92
Un 1.5 2.54 4.21 2.71
Ov 2.5 1.55 8.37 4.25
Un 2.5 3.06 2.36 4
Ov 3.5 1.69 4.37 5.53
Un 3.5 2.19 3.59 3.77
Goal-Goal 2.2 2.75 5.48
No Goal 1.84 7.57 3.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.64 6.9 4.08
NG+Un 2.5 2.12 7.57 2.78



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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