Estoril Vs Gil Vicente

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Estoril and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.24 3.18 3.29 2.38 1.6
Estim 1.83 3.98 4.98 1.9 2.11
Value % 10 -6.32 -10.31 10.61 -15.11



Basic Data and latest results


Estoril basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2




Estoril latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Boavista A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Sp Lisbon H 0 1 L U Ng
13 Sep Tondela A 2 1 W O Gg
27 Aug Maritimo H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Aug Pacos Ferreira A 3 1 W O Gg
13 Aug Guimaraes H 0 0 D U Ng
07 Aug Arouca A 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Gil Vicente basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3




Gil Vicente latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Porto H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Belenenses A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Vizela H 2 2 D O Gg
29 Aug Santa Clara A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Benfica H 0 2 L U Ng
15 Aug Portimonense A 1 0 W U Ng
09 Aug Boavista H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Estoril is 0.296 and for the Gil Vicente is -0.37.
  • The home dynamic for the Estoril is -0.043 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gil Vicente is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Estoril is 0.098 and for the Gil Vicente is 0.126.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Estoril is -0.682 and for the Gil Vicente is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Estoril 16% 30% 27% 26%
Gil Vicente 32% 49% 6% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Estoril to score 1.23 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Estoril to score 1.64 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Estoril to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.23 0-1 4.37
1 5.65 2-3 1.99
2 4.07 4+ 3.72
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 5.41 Un 1.5 4.37
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 1.9
6+ 30.3 Un 2.5 2.11
Gg 1.76 Ov 3.5 3.72
NoG 2.32 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.34 4.4 2.9
2-3 goals 1.66 3.37 10.04
4+ goals 1.84 5.27 3.74
Ov 1.5 1.72 3.86 6.32
Un 1.5 2.34 4.4 2.9
Ov 2.5 1.45 10.29 4.69
Un 2.5 2.57 2.36 5.34
Ov 3.5 1.84 5.27 3.74
Un 3.5 1.82 3.64 5.67
Goal-Goal 2.05 2.85 6.18
No Goal 1.6 8.29 3.95
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.52 8.24 4.57
NG+Un 2.5 1.76 8.29 3.66



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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