Exeter Vs Walsall

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Exeter and Walsall for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.82 3.51 4.48 2.18 1.69
Estim 2.07 3.89 3.83 1.95 2.06
Value % -6.64 -2.78 3.79 5.41 -10.63



Basic Data and latest results


Exeter basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 5 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Home 2 2 0 67 2 1 1 3




Exeter latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Hartlepool A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Sutton H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Scunthorpe A 4 0 W O Ng
04 Sep Forest Green H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Harrogate A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Bristol Rvs H 4 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Barrow A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Leyton Orient A 0 3 L O Ng



Walsall basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Away 0 1 3 8 2 4 1 3




Walsall latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Bristol Rvs H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Newport County A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Mansfield H 3 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Bradford A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Stevenage H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Hartlepool A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Aug Scunthorpe H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Forest Green H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Exeter is 0.496 and for the Walsall is -0.2.
  • The home dynamic for the Exeter is 0.49 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is -0.736.
  • The offensive ability for the Exeter is 0.554 and for the Walsall is 0.611.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Exeter is 0.202 and for the Walsall is -0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Exeter 21% 28% 31% 20%
Walsall 32% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.5 goals and Walsall to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.49 goals and Walsall to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 4.2
1 5.88 2-3 1.98
2 4.02 4+ 3.89
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4.2
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.95
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.05
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 3.89
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.59 3.5 3.05
2-3 goals 1.81 4.82 4.15
4+ goals 2.29 3.06 4.21
Ov 1.5 1.95 4.04 4.17
Un 1.5 2.59 3.5 3.05
Ov 2.5 1.77 6.12 3.67
Un 2.5 2.52 2.82 4.02
Ov 3.5 2.29 3.06 4.21
Un 3.5 2.01 4.3 3.72
Goal-Goal 2.36 2.83 4.5
No Goal 1.82 6.85 3.28
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 5.12 3.61
NG+Un 2.5 1.98 6.85 3.16



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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