Famalicao Vs Guimaraes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Famalicao and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.65 3.22 2.65 2.06 1.77
Estim 2.24 3.66 3.57 1.99 2.01
Value % 6.91 -3.73 -9.72 1.71 -6.75



Basic Data and latest results


Famalicao basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 5 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 2 1
At Home 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2




Famalicao latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Tondela A 2 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Maritimo H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Moreirense A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Sp Lisbon H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Aug Arouca A 1 2 L O Gg
15 Aug Porto H 1 2 L O Gg
08 Aug Pacos Ferreira A 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Guimaraes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 3 2 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 2 1
At Away 0 3 0 33 1 1 1 2




Guimaraes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Benfica H 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Arouca A 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Belenenses H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Sp Braga A 0 0 D U Ng
22 Aug Vizela H 4 0 W O Ng
13 Aug Estoril A 0 0 D U Ng
08 Aug Portimonense H 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Famalicao (4-3-3) Guimaraes (4-3-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Luiz J?nior GK Matous Trmal GK
Adri?n Mar?n DL Rafa Soares DL
Alex DC Toni Borevkovic DC
Dylan Batubinsika DC Abdul Mumin DC
Diogo Figueiras DR Falaye Sacko DR
Charles Pickel MC Andr? Andr? MC
P?p? MC Tom?s H?ndel MC
Iv?n Jaime MC Tiago Silva MC
Marcos Paulo FWL Marcus Edwards FWL
Simon Banza FW ?scar Estupi??n FW
Ivo Rodrigues FWR Ricardo Quaresma FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

Famalicao news and injuries


Alexandre Penetra is banned after his red card against Tondela and won’t feature here.
. Long-term absentee Heriberto Tavares is the only injury concern for FC Famalicao. Adrian Marin should start at left-back after a decent performance last time out.
Dylan Batubinsika will replace him.


Injured player Status
Heriberto Tavares Out
Alexandre Penetra Out



Guimaraes news and injuries


. Tiago Silva should start in central midfield once again as he’s enjoying a good run of form. Jo?o Ferreira is back available so Joao Henriques has a full squad available.
Scoring against Benfica may not be good enough to grant Bruno Duartebe a start with Oscar Estupinan expected to get the nod up front.


Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Vitoria de Guimaraes have drawn their last 5 away matches (Liga NOS).
  • Famalicao have failed to win their last 8 matches (Liga NOS).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Famalicao is -0.481 and for the Guimaraes is -0.052.
  • The home dynamic for the Famalicao is -0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the Guimaraes is 0.
  • The offensive ability for the Famalicao is 0.482 and for the Guimaraes is -0.337.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Famalicao is -0.571 and for the Guimaraes is 0.433.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Famalicao 22% 32% 24% 21%
Guimaraes 26% 51% 6% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.2 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.44 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.24 0-1 3.92
1 5.08 2-3 2.09
2 4.12 4+ 3.77
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 5.68 Un 1.5 3.92
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 28.57 Un 2.5 2.01
Gg 1.74 Ov 3.5 3.77
NoG 2.35 Un 3.5 1.36


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 4.4 2.28
2-3 goals 1.97 2.9 6.75
4+ goals 2.23 5.3 2.76
Ov 1.5 2.06 3.46 4.46
Un 1.5 3 4.4 2.28
Ov 2.5 1.68 10.02 3.27
Un 2.5 3.34 2.23 3.95
Ov 3.5 2.23 5.3 2.76
Un 3.5 2.24 3.29 4.01
Goal-Goal 2.36 2.67 4.95
No Goal 2.08 7.33 2.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.68 8.18 3.53
NG+Un 2.5 2.23 7.33 2.64



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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