FC Koln Vs Greuther Furth

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between FC Koln and Greuther Furth for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.46 4.82 6.79 1.53 2.55
Estim 1.57 4.65 6.71 1.5 3
Value % -4.8 0.76 0.18 1.31 -5.88



Basic Data and latest results


FC Koln basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 6 3 3
Last 3 0 3 0 33 3 3 0 3
At Home 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1




FC Koln latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Ein Frankfurt A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Freiburg A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Bochum H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Bayern Munich A 2 3 L O Gg
15 Aug Hertha H 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Greuther Furth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 0 3 0 2 3 3 0




Greuther Furth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Bayern Munich H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Sep Hertha A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Wolfsburg H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Mainz A 0 3 L O Ng
21 Aug Bielefeld H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Stuttgart A 1 5 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


FC Koln (4-4-2) Greuther Furth (4-4-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Timo Horn GK Sascha Burchert GK
Benno Schmitz DL Jetro Willems DL
Rafael Czichos DC Nick Viergever DC
Jorge Mer? DC Maximilian Bauer DC
Kingsley Ehizibue DR Marco Meyerh?fer DR
Jonas Hector ML Paul Seguin ML
Dejan Ljubicic MC Sebastian Griesbeck MC
Ellyes Skhiri MC Hans Nunoo Sarpei MC
Mark Uth MR Julian Green MR
Sebastian Andersson FW Branimir Hrgota FW
Anthony Modeste FW Havard Nielsen FW




Basic Data

Predictions

FC Koln news and injuries


Defender Timo Hubers is nearing a return from an ankle injury, while Jan Thielmann has a stomach problem.
. Florian Kainz is back available after suspension.
Sava-Arangel Cestic and Kingsley Schindler are nearing returns, while Jannes Horn continues to recover from a hip injury. Dejan Ljubicic has joined from Rapid Vienna, while keeper Marvin Schw?be, a free transfer signing from Danish side Brondby, has recovered from a hand injury.


Injured player Status
Jannes Horn Out
Tim Lemperle Out
Jan Thielmann Doubtful
Timo H?bers Doubtful



Greuther Furth news and injuries



. Free transfer signing Jetro Willems, formerly of Newcastle, has nailed down a spot at left-back. Talented Gideon Jung needs a knee operation and will be out for months. New signing Jessic Ngankam has picked up an ACL injury.
Gian-Luca Itter is nearing a return from a thigh injury.


Injured player Status
Jessic Ngankam Out
Gideon Jung Out
Gian-Luca Itter Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • FC Koln have drawn their last 3 matches (Bundesliga).
  • Greuther Fuerth have lost their last 4 matches (Bundesliga).
  • FC Koln have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 matches against Greuther Fuerth in all competitions.
  • Greuther Fuerth have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches (Bundesliga).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in FC Koln’s last 3 games (Bundesliga).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Greuther Fuerth’s last 3 away games (Bundesliga).
  • FC Koln are undefeated in their last 7 matches against Greuther Fuerth in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the FC Koln is 0.148 and for the Greuther Furth is -0.852.
  • The home dynamic for the FC Koln is 0.584 and the dynamic as a guest for the Greuther Furth is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the FC Koln is 1 and for the Greuther Furth is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Koln is -1 and for the Greuther Furth is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
FC Koln 11% 24% 17% 48%
Greuther Furth 22% 56% 16% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 2.36 goals and Greuther Furth to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 1.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 2.01 goals and Greuther Furth to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 40 0-1 7.04
1 8.55 2-3 2.29
2 5.26 4+ 2.37
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.17
4 3.23 Un 1.5 7.04
5 11.9 Ov 2.5 1.5
6+ 35.71 Un 2.5 3.01
Gg 1.45 Ov 3.5 2.37
NoG 3.22 Un 3.5 1.73


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.63 5.68 2.25
2-3 goals 1.82 3.21 7.15
4+ goals 1.23 7.81 17.58
Ov 1.5 1.47 4.52 10.09
Un 1.5 2.63 5.68 2.25
Ov 2.5 1.22 12.37 9.82
Un 2.5 3.65 2.06 4.15
Ov 3.5 1.23 7.81 17.58
Un 3.5 1.97 3.59 4.66
Goal-Goal 1.57 3.63 11.3
No Goal 1.56 12.44 3.57
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.26 10.24 9.07
NG+Un 2.5 2.15 12.44 2.45



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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