In this article I will analyze the game between FC Koln and Greuther Furth for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
FC Koln basic data
FC Koln latest results
|25 Sep||Ein Frankfurt||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
|18 Sep||RB Leipzig||H||1||1||D||U||Gg|
|22 Aug||Bayern Munich||A||2||3||L||O||Gg|
Greuther Furth basic data
Greuther Furth latest results
|24 Sep||Bayern Munich||H||1||3||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|FC Koln (4-4-2)||Greuther Furth (4-4-2)|
|Timo Horn||GK||Sascha Burchert||GK|
|Benno Schmitz||DL||Jetro Willems||DL|
|Rafael Czichos||DC||Nick Viergever||DC|
|Jorge Mer?||DC||Maximilian Bauer||DC|
|Kingsley Ehizibue||DR||Marco Meyerh?fer||DR|
|Jonas Hector||ML||Paul Seguin||ML|
|Dejan Ljubicic||MC||Sebastian Griesbeck||MC|
|Ellyes Skhiri||MC||Hans Nunoo Sarpei||MC|
|Mark Uth||MR||Julian Green||MR|
|Sebastian Andersson||FW||Branimir Hrgota||FW|
|Anthony Modeste||FW||Havard Nielsen||FW|
FC Koln news and injuries
Defender Timo Hubers is nearing a return from an ankle injury, while Jan Thielmann has a stomach problem.
. Florian Kainz is back available after suspension.
Sava-Arangel Cestic and Kingsley Schindler are nearing returns, while Jannes Horn continues to recover from a hip injury. Dejan Ljubicic has joined from Rapid Vienna, while keeper Marvin Schw?be, a free transfer signing from Danish side Brondby, has recovered from a hand injury.
Greuther Furth news and injuries
. Free transfer signing Jetro Willems, formerly of Newcastle, has nailed down a spot at left-back. Talented Gideon Jung needs a knee operation and will be out for months. New signing Jessic Ngankam has picked up an ACL injury.
Gian-Luca Itter is nearing a return from a thigh injury.
Betting information and prediction
- FC Koln have drawn their last 3 matches (Bundesliga).
- Greuther Fuerth have lost their last 4 matches (Bundesliga).
- FC Koln have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 matches against Greuther Fuerth in all competitions.
- Greuther Fuerth have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches (Bundesliga).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in FC Koln’s last 3 games (Bundesliga).
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Greuther Fuerth’s last 3 away games (Bundesliga).
- FC Koln are undefeated in their last 7 matches against Greuther Fuerth in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the FC Koln is 0.148 and for the Greuther Furth is -0.852.
- The home dynamic for the FC Koln is 0.584 and the dynamic as a guest for the Greuther Furth is -0.96.
- The offensive ability for the FC Koln is 1 and for the Greuther Furth is 0.053.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Koln is -1 and for the Greuther Furth is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 2.36 goals and Greuther Furth to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 1.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 2.01 goals and Greuther Furth to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|