Fiorentina Vs Napoli

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Napoli for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.05 3.56 1.95 1.78 2.12
Estim 3.98 4 2.01 2 2
Value % 0.43 -3.09 -1.53 -6.18 2.83



Basic Data and latest results


Fiorentina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 6 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 1 0 1 50 2 2 2 0




Fiorentina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Udinese A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Sep Inter H 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Genoa A 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Atalanta A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Torino H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Roma A 1 3 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Napoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 6 0 0 100 6 2 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 0 2 1
At Away 3 0 0 100 3 1 3 0




Napoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Cagliari H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Sampdoria A 4 0 W O Ng
20 Sep Udinese A 4 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Juventus H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Genoa A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Venezia H 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fiorentina is 0.356 and for the Napoli is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Fiorentina is -0.059 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Fiorentina is 1 and for the Napoli is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fiorentina is -0.545 and for the Napoli is 0.605.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fiorentina 42% 21% 33% 5%
Napoli 25% 24% 25% 25%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.01 goals and Napoli to score 1.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Napoli to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1 goals and Napoli to score 1.5 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team Napoli to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.43 0-1 3.85
1 6.49 2-3 2.05
2 4.2 4+ 3.97
3 4 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.9 Un 1.5 3.85
5 10.53 Ov 2.5 1.99
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 2.01
Gg 2.3 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 1.77 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 5 2.45 2.55
2-3 goals 2.76 9.76 1.87
4+ goals 11.45 2.68 1.85
Ov 1.5 3.72 5.14 1.86
Un 1.5 5 2.45 2.55
Ov 2.5 4.37 5.34 1.71
Un 2.5 3.66 3.19 2.42
Ov 3.5 11.45 2.68 1.85
Un 3.5 3.27 4.79 2.06
Goal-Goal 4.21 3.01 2.32
No Goal 3.82 5.34 1.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.73 4.09 2.05
NG+Un 2.5 3.29 5.34 2.17



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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