Fleetwood Town Vs Charlton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fleetwood Town and Charlton for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.5 3.28 2.84 2.05 1.79
Estim 2.62 3.5 3 2.25 1.8
Value % -1.83 -1.92 -1.88 -4.34 -0.31



Basic Data and latest results


Fleetwood Town basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 4 0 56 6 6 5 1
Last 3 0 3 0 33 3 3 3 0
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1




Fleetwood Town latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Milton Keynes Dons A 3 3 D O Gg
25 Sep Cambridge A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Sunderland H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Rotherham A 4 2 W O Gg
28 Aug Plymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Cheltenham H 3 2 W O Gg
17 Aug Sheffield Weds A 0 1 L U Ng
14 Aug Lincoln A 1 2 L O Gg



Charlton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 6 5 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 1 3 8 4 4 3 1




Charlton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Bolton H 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Portsmouth H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Sep Gillingham A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Wycombe A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Cheltenham H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Crewe H 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Wigan H 0 2 L U Ng
17 Aug Milton Keynes Dons A 1 2 L O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Fleetwood Town (3-4-1-2) Charlton (4-4-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Alex Cairns GK Craig MacGillivray GK
Danny Andrew DC Ben Purrington DL
James Hill DC Akin Famewo DC
Tom Clarke DC Sam Lavelle DC
Max Clark ML Adam Matthews DR
Harrison Biggins MC Jonathan Leko ML
Jordan Rossiter MC Sean Clare MC
Callum Johnson MR Ben Watson MC
Callum Camps AMC Corey Blackett-Taylor MR
Gerard Garner FW Josh Davison FW
Ryan Edmondson FW Elliot Lee FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Fleetwood Town news and injuries



. Brad Halliday and Darnell Johnson (long-term) are both likely to miss the rest of the season.


Injured player Status
Brad Halliday Out



Charlton news and injuries


Nigel Adkins could ring the changes in Lancashire, with Harry Arter, Chris Gunter, Jayden Stockley and Conor Washington all pushing for a starting place following the recent Bolton defeat.
.


Injured player Status
Ronnie Schwartz Out
Ryan Inniss Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Fleetwood have drawn their last 3 matches (League One).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Fleetwood’s last 4 games (League One).
  • Fleetwood have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches (League One).
  • Fleetwood have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 matches (League One).
  • Charlton have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fleetwood Town is 0.296 and for the Charlton is -0.37.
  • The home dynamic for the Fleetwood Town is 0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Charlton is -0.72.
  • The offensive ability for the Fleetwood Town is 1 and for the Charlton is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fleetwood Town is -1 and for the Charlton is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fleetwood Town 25% 40% 23% 12%
Charlton 29% 36% 25% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fleetwood Town to score 1.26 goals and Charlton to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fleetwood Town to score 1.23 goals and Charlton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.56
1 4.83 2-3 1.94
2 3.65 4+ 4.98
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 7.25 Un 1.5 3.56
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.42 3.8 3.09
2-3 goals 2.73 3.58 2.82
4+ goals 2.64 2.96 3.53
Ov 1.5 2.71 3.38 2.99
Un 1.5 2.42 3.8 3.09
Ov 2.5 2.25 6.51 2.49
Un 2.5 3.02 2.55 3.63
Ov 3.5 2.64 2.96 3.53
Un 3.5 2.61 3.66 2.91
Goal-Goal 3.29 2.49 3.4
No Goal 2.13 6.36 2.68
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.39 5.63 2.47
NG+Un 2.5 2.23 6.36 2.69



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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