For Sittard Vs Nijmegen

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between For Sittard and Nijmegen for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.45 3.54 2.89 1.85 2.04
Estim 2.44 3.94 2.99 1.67 2.49
Value % 0.17 -2.87 -1.16 5.83 -8.86



Basic Data and latest results


For Sittard basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 3 3 0




For Sittard latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Vitesse A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Ajax H 0 5 L O Ng
18 Sep Heerenveen A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Sparta Rotterdam A 1 3 L O Gg
27 Aug Waalwijk H 2 2 D O Gg
14 Aug Twente H 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Nijmegen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 3 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 3 3 2 2




Nijmegen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Feyenoord A 3 5 L O Gg
22 Sep Utrecht H 0 3 L O Ng
17 Sep Sparta Rotterdam A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Willem II H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Heracles A 1 0 W U Ng
20 Aug Zwolle H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Ajax A 0 5 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


For Sittard (4-3-1-2) Nijmegen (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Yanick van Osch GK Mattijs Branderhorst GK
George Cox DL Souffian Elkarouani DL
Roel Janssen DC Cas Odenthal DC
Ivo Pinto DC Iv?n M?rquez DC
Martin Angha DR Bart van Rooij DR
Deroy Duarte MC Lasse Sch?ne DMC
Ben Rienstra MC Dirk Proper DMC
Tesfaldet Tekie MC Magnus Mattsson AML
Samy Baghdadi AMC Mikkel Duelund AMC
Bassala Sambou FW Jonathan Okita AMR
Mats Seuntjens FW Ali Akman FW




Basic Data

Predictions

For Sittard news and injuries


Fortuna Sittard are still without Zian Flemming, Arianit Ferati, Richie Musaba and Lisandro Semedo.
. Bassala Sambou will hope to continue leading the line against NEC Nijmegen, but Toshio Lake is an option.


Injured player Status
Lisandro Semedo Out
Arianit Ferati Out
Richie Musaba Out
Zian Flemming Out



Nijmegen news and injuries



. NEC captain Rens van Eijden and midfielder Mathias De Wolf are the only players unavailable for Rogier Meijer. Magnus Mattsson is hoping to retain a spot in Rogier Meijer’s starting XI after scoring in their 5-3 loss at Feyenoord last time out.


Injured player Status
Mathias De Wolf Out
Rens van Eijden Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Fortuna Sittard’s last 6 home games (Eredivisie).
  • Fortuna Sittard have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against NEC Nijmegen in all competitions.
  • NEC Nijmegen have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 away matches against Fortuna Sittard in all competitions.
  • Fortuna Sittard have failed to win their last 5 matches (Eredivisie).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the For Sittard is -0.385 and for the Nijmegen is -0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the For Sittard is -0.075 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nijmegen is -0.256.
  • The offensive ability for the For Sittard is -0.005 and for the Nijmegen is 0.021.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the For Sittard is -1 and for the Nijmegen is 0.03.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
For Sittard 22% 27% 27% 24%
Nijmegen 21% 37% 24% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.4 goals and Nijmegen to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.52 goals and Nijmegen to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20.83 0-1 5.29
1 7.09 2-3 2.14
2 4.72 4+ 2.92
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.23
4 5.03 Un 1.5 5.29
5 9.71 Ov 2.5 1.67
6+ 24.39 Un 2.5 2.49
Gg 1.64 Ov 3.5 2.92
NoG 2.56 Un 3.5 1.52


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.26 3.94 2.28
2-3 goals 2.25 4.62 2.96
4+ goals 2.38 3.27 3.65
Ov 1.5 2.3 3.93 3.21
Un 1.5 3.26 3.94 2.28
Ov 2.5 2.03 5.7 3.02
Un 2.5 3.49 2.69 2.93
Ov 3.5 2.38 3.27 3.65
Un 3.5 2.47 4.4 2.72
Goal-Goal 2.5 2.96 3.83
No Goal 2.35 8.12 2.22
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 4.84 3.19
NG+Un 2.5 2.61 8.12 2.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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