Frosinone Vs Cittadella

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Frosinone and Cittadella for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.1 3.22 3.57 2.03 1.8
Estim 1.84 4.03 4.81 2.11 1.9
Value % 6.73 -6.24 -7.22 -1.87 -2.92



Basic Data and latest results


Frosinone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 4 0 56 4 2 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2
At Home 0 3 0 33 2 2 2 1




Frosinone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Reggina A 0 0 D U Ng
20 Sep Brescia H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Sep Como A 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Perugia H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Vicenza A 2 0 W U Ng
20 Aug Parma H 2 2 D O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Cittadella basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Away 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 1




Cittadella latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Lecce H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Sep Benevento A 1 4 L O Gg
18 Sep Pordenone H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Cremonese A 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Crotone H 4 2 W O Gg
21 Aug Vicenza H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Frosinone is 0.319 and for the Cittadella is -0.089.
  • The home dynamic for the Frosinone is -0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cittadella is -0.92.
  • The offensive ability for the Frosinone is -0.005 and for the Cittadella is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Frosinone is 0.571 and for the Cittadella is -0.288.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Frosinone 18% 32% 29% 21%
Cittadella 42% 33% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.43 goals and Cittadella to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.53 goals and Cittadella to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.16 0-1 3.72
1 5.18 2-3 1.96
2 3.91 4+ 4.48
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.72
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.1
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.9
Gg 2.09 Ov 3.5 4.48
NoG 1.91 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.04 3.54 4.41
2-3 goals 1.67 4.85 5.14
4+ goals 2.06 3.33 4.65
Ov 1.5 1.77 4.26 4.98
Un 1.5 2.04 3.54 4.41
Ov 2.5 1.62 7.1 4.1
Un 2.5 2.08 2.9 5.71
Ov 3.5 2.06 3.33 4.65
Un 3.5 1.78 4.3 4.86
Goal-Goal 2.34 2.78 4.69
No Goal 1.53 6.88 4.93
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.83 5.57 3.66
NG+Un 2.5 1.67 6.88 4.57



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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