Getafe Vs Sociedad

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Getafe and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.73 3.18 2.22 2.63 1.51
Estim 2.24 4.37 3.08 1.56 2.79
Value % 17.83 -8.56 -12.58 26.08 -30.38



Basic Data and latest results


Getafe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 0 6 0 2 6 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1
At Home 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2




Getafe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Betis A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Sep Ath Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Vallecano A 0 3 L O Ng
13 Sep Elche H 0 1 L U Ng
29 Aug Barcelona A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Aug Sevilla H 0 1 L U Ng
13 Aug Valencia A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Sociedad basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 5 1 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2
At Away 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1




Sociedad latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Elche H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Granada A 3 2 W O Gg
19 Sep Sevilla H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Cadiz A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Levante H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Vallecano H 1 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Barcelona A 2 4 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Getafe is -1 and for the Sociedad is 0.83.
  • The home dynamic for the Getafe is -0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sociedad is 0.376.
  • The offensive ability for the Getafe is -0.865 and for the Sociedad is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Getafe is -1 and for the Sociedad is 0.888.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Getafe 24% 18% 40% 19%
Sociedad 9% 58% 21% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 0.84 goals and Sociedad to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and the guest team Sociedad to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.54 goals and Sociedad to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 47.62 0-1 5.78
1 6.58 2-3 2.01
2 5.41 4+ 3.04
3 3.21 Ov 1.5 1.21
4 4.65 Un 1.5 5.78
5 11.11 Ov 2.5 1.56
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.79
Gg 1.44 Ov 3.5 3.04
NoG 3.29 Un 3.5 1.49


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 10.81 8.24 1.27
2-3 goals 1.78 4.92 4.28
4+ goals 2.18 3.1 4.57
Ov 1.5 1.92 3.99 4.39
Un 1.5 10.81 8.24 1.27
Ov 2.5 1.62 6.05 4.61
Un 2.5 7.02 2.93 1.94
Ov 3.5 2.18 3.1 4.57
Un 3.5 2.26 5.49 2.66
Goal-Goal 1.83 3.36 6.38
No Goal 4.47 14.48 1.41
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.57 5.6 5.45
NG+Un 2.5 5.04 14.48 1.39



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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