In this article I will analyze the game between Gillingham and Wigan for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Gillingham basic data
Gillingham latest results
|18 Sep||Milton Keynes Dons||H||1||4||L||O||Gg|
|17 Aug||AFC Wimbledon||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
Wigan basic data
Wigan latest results
|28 Sep||Sheffield Weds||H||1||2||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Gillingham (4-3-1-2)||Wigan (4-2-3-1)|
|Jamie Cumming||GK||Ben Amos||GK|
|David Tutonda||DL||Tendayi Darikwa||DL|
|Max Ehmer||DC||Jack Whatmough||DC|
|Rhys Bennett||DC||Kelland Watts||DC|
|Robbie McKenzie||DR||Max Power||DR|
|Alexander MacDonald||MC||Tom Naylor||DMC|
|Danny Lloyd||MC||Jordan Cousins||DMC|
|Daniel Adshead||MC||James McClean||AML|
|Kyle Dempsey||AMC||Will Keane||AMC|
|John Akinde||FW||Callum Lang||AMR|
|Vadaine Oliver||FW||Charlie Wyke||FW|
Gillingham news and injuries
. Steve Evans might be tempted to name an unchanged side to the one that defeated Cambridge last time out.
Wigan news and injuries
. After seeing their unbeaten run ended by Sheffield Wednesday, Wigan could finally shuffle their pack, with Jordan Jones and Stephen Humphrys two players pushing for a starting place.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Wigan’s last 6 away games (League One).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Gillingham’s last 3 games (League One).
- Gillingham have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Wigan in all competitions.
- Gillingham are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 home matches (League One).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Gillingham is -0.096 and for the Wigan is 0.607.
- The home dynamic for the Gillingham is -0.043 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wigan is 0.376.
- The offensive ability for the Gillingham is 1 and for the Wigan is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Gillingham is -0.545 and for the Wigan is 0.09.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 0.86 goals and Wigan to score 1.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Wigan to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.14 goals and Wigan to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|