Gillingham Vs Wigan

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Gillingham and Wigan for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.2 3.61 1.84 2.02 1.81
Estim 3.23 3.61 2.42 2.13 1.89
Value % 7.15 0 -13.03 -2.56 -2.34



Basic Data and latest results


Gillingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 6 5 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 0 3
At Home 1 2 1 42 4 4 2 2




Gillingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Cambridge A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Oxford A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Charlton H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Milton Keynes Dons H 1 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Burton A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Shrewsbury A 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Morecambe H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Aug AFC Wimbledon A 1 1 D U Gg



Wigan basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1




Wigan latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Sheffield Weds H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Cheltenham H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Accrington A 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Doncaster H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Portsmouth H 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Charlton A 2 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Wycombe H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Rotherham H 1 0 W U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Gillingham (4-3-1-2) Wigan (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Jamie Cumming GK Ben Amos GK
David Tutonda DL Tendayi Darikwa DL
Max Ehmer DC Jack Whatmough DC
Rhys Bennett DC Kelland Watts DC
Robbie McKenzie DR Max Power DR
Alexander MacDonald MC Tom Naylor DMC
Danny Lloyd MC Jordan Cousins DMC
Daniel Adshead MC James McClean AML
Kyle Dempsey AMC Will Keane AMC
John Akinde FW Callum Lang AMR
Vadaine Oliver FW Charlie Wyke FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Gillingham news and injuries



. Steve Evans might be tempted to name an unchanged side to the one that defeated Cambridge last time out.


Injured player Status



Wigan news and injuries



. After seeing their unbeaten run ended by Sheffield Wednesday, Wigan could finally shuffle their pack, with Jordan Jones and Stephen Humphrys two players pushing for a starting place.


Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Wigan’s last 6 away games (League One).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Gillingham’s last 3 games (League One).
  • Gillingham have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Wigan in all competitions.
  • Gillingham are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 home matches (League One).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Gillingham is -0.096 and for the Wigan is 0.607.
  • The home dynamic for the Gillingham is -0.043 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wigan is 0.376.
  • The offensive ability for the Gillingham is 1 and for the Wigan is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Gillingham is -0.545 and for the Wigan is 0.09.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Gillingham 32% 34% 24% 11%
Wigan 22% 38% 29% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 0.86 goals and Wigan to score 1.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Wigan to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.14 goals and Wigan to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 3.85
1 5.21 2-3 1.93
2 3.7 4+ 4.48
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.67 Un 1.5 3.85
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.12
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.89
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 4.48
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.56 3.82 2.18
2-3 goals 3.16 4.08 2.28
4+ goals 3.05 2.72 3.28
Ov 1.5 3.13 3.55 2.51
Un 1.5 3.56 3.82 2.18
Ov 2.5 2.53 5.74 2.32
Un 2.5 4.27 2.72 2.51
Ov 3.5 3.05 2.72 3.28
Un 3.5 3.28 3.99 2.25
Goal-Goal 3.31 2.57 3.23
No Goal 3.14 6.82 1.87
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.53 5 2.47
NG+Un 2.5 3.25 6.82 1.91



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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