Girona Vs Almeria

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Girona and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.53 3.19 2.87 2.08 1.78
Estim 2.49 3.48 3.22 2.47 1.68
Value % 0.63 -2.61 -3.79 -7.59 3.34



Basic Data and latest results


Girona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 3 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 1 0 3
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 1 1 3




Girona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Oviedo A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Valladolid H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Malaga A 0 2 L U Ng
03 Sep Sp Gijon H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Ponferradina A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Las Palmas H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Amorebieta H 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Almeria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Away 2 0 2 50 3 3 3 1




Almeria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Tenerife H 3 1 W O Gg
17 Sep Alcorcon A 4 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Ponferradina A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Sep Malaga H 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Amorebieta A 1 2 L O Gg
20 Aug Oviedo H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Aug Cartagena A 3 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Girona is -0.296 and for the Almeria is 0.356.
  • The home dynamic for the Girona is 0.216 and the dynamic as a guest for the Almeria is 0.
  • The offensive ability for the Girona is -0.42 and for the Almeria is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Girona is 0.202 and for the Almeria is -0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Girona 28% 36% 24% 12%
Almeria 35% 36% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.25 goals and Almeria to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.19 goals and Almeria to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.2 0-1 3.09
1 4.42 2-3 2.02
2 3.7 4+ 5.56
3 4.44 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 8.06 Un 1.5 3.09
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.47
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.68
Gg 2.14 Ov 3.5 5.56
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.63 3.31 3.15
2-3 goals 2.33 3.81 3.24
4+ goals 2.65 3.05 3.4
Ov 1.5 2.41 3.57 3.28
Un 1.5 2.63 3.31 3.15
Ov 2.5 2.06 6.86 2.72
Un 2.5 2.88 2.61 3.71
Ov 3.5 2.65 3.05 3.4
Un 3.5 2.44 3.59 3.2
Goal-Goal 3.02 2.48 3.77
No Goal 2.14 5.42 2.87
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.18 5.73 2.73
NG+Un 2.5 2.25 5.42 2.9



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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