Granada Vs Sevilla

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Granada and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 5.03 3.53 1.8 2.22 1.7
Estim 2.52 3.65 3.04 1.83 2.2
Value % 19.8 -0.93 -22.66 9.6 -13.37



Basic Data and latest results


Granada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 4 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1




Granada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Celta A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Sep Sociedad H 2 3 L O Gg
20 Sep Barcelona A 1 1 D U Gg
13 Sep Betis H 1 2 L O Gg
29 Aug Vallecano A 0 4 L O Ng
21 Aug Valencia H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Aug Villarreal A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Sevilla basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 2 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2
At Away 1 2 0 56 2 1 0 3




Sevilla latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Espanol H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Valencia H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Sociedad A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Elche A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Aug Getafe A 1 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Vallecano H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Granada is -0.689 and for the Sevilla is 0.667.
  • The home dynamic for the Granada is -0.671 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sevilla is 0.296.
  • The offensive ability for the Granada is 0.036 and for the Sevilla is 0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Granada is -1 and for the Sevilla is 0.519.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Granada 23% 31% 26% 20%
Sevilla 16% 52% 20% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 0.75 goals and Sevilla to score 1.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Sevilla to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.42 goals and Sevilla to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 27.03 0-1 4.85
1 5.92 2-3 1.98
2 4.02 4+ 3.46
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.26
4 5.18 Un 1.5 4.85
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.83
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.2
Gg 1.55 Ov 3.5 3.46
NoG 2.82 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.2 5.57 1.72
2-3 goals 2.46 3.16 3.61
4+ goals 2.04 3.75 4.13
Ov 1.5 2.28 3.35 3.79
Un 1.5 4.2 5.57 1.72
Ov 2.5 1.78 7.09 3.37
Un 2.5 5.06 2.31 2.71
Ov 3.5 2.04 3.75 4.13
Un 3.5 2.79 3.61 2.74
Goal-Goal 2.34 2.73 4.83
No Goal 2.93 9.57 1.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.76 6.32 3.63
NG+Un 2.5 3.28 9.57 1.76



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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