Grimsby Vs Dover Athletic

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Grimsby and Dover Athletic for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.42 4.43 6.61 1.76 2.03
Estim 1.69 4.39 5.59 2 2
Value % -11.25 0.21 2.76 -6.82 0.74



Basic Data and latest results


Grimsby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 4 0 0 100 4 2 2 2




Grimsby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Bromley A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Maidenhead A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Eastleigh H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Wrexham H 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Torquay A 3 1 W O Gg
04 Sep Barnet H 4 3 W O Gg
31 Aug Stockport A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Weymouth H 1 0 W U Ng



Dover Athletic basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 3 4 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
At Away 0 1 3 8 3 4 2 2




Dover Athletic latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Bromley H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Solihull H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Weymouth A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Sep Eastleigh A 1 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Chesterfield H 0 0 D U Ng
04 Sep Altrincham A 2 3 L O Gg
30 Aug Boreham Wood H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Maidenhead A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Grimsby is 0.422 and for the Dover Athletic is -0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Grimsby is 0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dover Athletic is -0.72.
  • The offensive ability for the Grimsby is 1 and for the Dover Athletic is -0.505.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Grimsby is -0.597 and for the Dover Athletic is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Grimsby 23% 20% 28% 30%
Dover Athletic 44% 37% 14% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 2.03 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Grimsby to win by 1.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.64 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Grimsby to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10 0-1 3.68
1 5.81 2-3 2
2 4.41 4+ 4.37
3 3.68 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.33 Un 1.5 3.68
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 2
Gg 2.31 Ov 3.5 4.37
NoG 1.76 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.09 2.72 3.24
2-3 goals 1.41 6.74 7.13
4+ goals 1.53 4.32 8.81
Ov 1.5 1.44 5.73 7.58
Un 1.5 3.09 2.72 3.24
Ov 2.5 1.31 9.45 7.71
Un 2.5 2.38 2.87 4.34
Ov 3.5 1.53 4.32 8.81
Un 3.5 1.74 4.43 5.01
Goal-Goal 1.71 3.4 8.15
No Goal 1.67 5.68 4.47
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.42 6.75 6.75
NG+Un 2.5 2.02 5.68 3.7



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *