In this article I will analyze the game between Groningen and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Groningen basic data
Groningen latest results
|18 Sep||Willem II||A||1||2||L||O||Gg|
|28 Aug||PSV Eindhoven||A||2||5||L||O||Gg|
Twente basic data
Twente latest results
|23 Sep||AZ Alkmaar||H||3||1||W||O||Gg|
|14 Aug||For Sittard||A||1||2||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Groningen (3-4-3)||Twente (4-3-3)|
|Peter Leeuwenburgh||GK||Lars Unnerstall||GK|
|Neraysho Kasanwirjo||DC||Michal Sad?lek||DL|
|Wessel Dammers||DC||Robin Pr?pper||DC|
|Mike te Wierik||DC||Mees Hilgers||DC|
|Yahya Kalley||DML||Giovanni Troup?e||DR|
|Damil Dankerlui||MC||Michel Vlap||MC|
|Tom?s Suslov||MC||Wout Brama||MC|
|Mohamed El Hankouri||DMR||Ramiz Zerrouki||MC|
|Paulos Abraham||FWL||Dimitrios Limnios||FWL|
|J?rgen Strand Larsen||FW||Ricky van Wolfswinkel||FW|
|Cyril Ngonge||FWR||Daan Rots||FWR|
Groningen news and injuries
. Laros Duarte and Radinio Balker are both ruled out for Groningen but the home side welcome back Mike te Wierik and Dani?l van Kaam from suspension.
Twente news and injuries
Jesse Bosch and Virgil Misidjan are in contention for starts against Groningen on Friday. Kik Pierie, Vaclav Cerny and Jody Lukoki will sit this game out due to injury.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of FC Groningen’s last 10 home games (Eredivisie).
- FC Groningen have been losing at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
- Twente have won their last 4 matches (Eredivisie).
- Twente have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
- Twente have been winning at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
- FC Groningen have lost their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Twente’s last 6 away games (Eredivisie).
- Twente have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches (Eredivisie).
- Twente have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 away matches against FC Groningen in all competitions.
- Twente are undefeated in their last 6 matches against FC Groningen in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Groningen is -0.704 and for the Twente is 0.57.
- The home dynamic for the Groningen is -0.357 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.08.
- The offensive ability for the Groningen is -0.451 and for the Twente is 0.579.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Groningen is -0.682 and for the Twente is -0.631.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.27 goals and Twente to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.46 goals and Twente to score 1.54 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|