Groningen Vs Twente

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Groningen and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.63 3.32 2.64 1.92 1.92
Estim 2.88 3.85 2.54 1.62 2.62
Value % -3.3 -4.15 1.49 9.65 -13.92



Basic Data and latest results


Groningen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1
At Home 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3




Groningen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Ajax A 0 3 L O Ng
22 Sep Vitesse H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Willem II A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Heerenveen H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug PSV Eindhoven A 2 5 L O Gg
21 Aug Utrecht H 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Cambuur A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Twente basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 5 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 3 3 0
At Away 2 0 2 50 3 4 3 1




Twente latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Heerenveen A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Vitesse A 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Utrecht H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Cambuur A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Aug Ajax H 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug For Sittard A 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Groningen (3-4-3) Twente (4-3-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Peter Leeuwenburgh GK Lars Unnerstall GK
Neraysho Kasanwirjo DC Michal Sad?lek DL
Wessel Dammers DC Robin Pr?pper DC
Mike te Wierik DC Mees Hilgers DC
Yahya Kalley DML Giovanni Troup?e DR
Damil Dankerlui MC Michel Vlap MC
Tom?s Suslov MC Wout Brama MC
Mohamed El Hankouri DMR Ramiz Zerrouki MC
Paulos Abraham FWL Dimitrios Limnios FWL
J?rgen Strand Larsen FW Ricky van Wolfswinkel FW
Cyril Ngonge FWR Daan Rots FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

Groningen news and injuries



. Laros Duarte and Radinio Balker are both ruled out for Groningen but the home side welcome back Mike te Wierik and Dani?l van Kaam from suspension.


Injured player Status
Laros Duarte Out
Radinio Balker Out



Twente news and injuries


Jesse Bosch and Virgil Misidjan are in contention for starts against Groningen on Friday. Kik Pierie, Vaclav Cerny and Jody Lukoki will sit this game out due to injury.
.


Injured player Status
Kik Pierie Out
Vaclav Cerny Out
Jody Lukoki Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of FC Groningen’s last 10 home games (Eredivisie).
  • FC Groningen have been losing at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Twente have won their last 4 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Twente have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Twente have been winning at both half time and full time in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
  • FC Groningen have lost their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Twente’s last 6 away games (Eredivisie).
  • Twente have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches (Eredivisie).
  • Twente have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 away matches against FC Groningen in all competitions.
  • Twente are undefeated in their last 6 matches against FC Groningen in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Groningen is -0.704 and for the Twente is 0.57.
  • The home dynamic for the Groningen is -0.357 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.08.
  • The offensive ability for the Groningen is -0.451 and for the Twente is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Groningen is -0.682 and for the Twente is -0.631.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Groningen 22% 35% 18% 25%
Twente 18% 33% 27% 22%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.27 goals and Twente to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.46 goals and Twente to score 1.54 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 26.32 0-1 5.78
1 7.41 2-3 2.19
2 4.78 4+ 2.7
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.21
4 4.78 Un 1.5 5.78
5 9.35 Ov 2.5 1.62
6+ 18.52 Un 2.5 2.62
Gg 1.55 Ov 3.5 2.7
NoG 2.82 Un 3.5 1.59


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.79 4.55 2.37
2-3 goals 3.35 3.86 2.26
4+ goals 2.5 3.59 3.11
Ov 1.5 2.91 3.74 2.57
Un 1.5 2.79 4.55 2.37
Ov 2.5 2.45 5.99 2.35
Un 2.5 4.06 2.45 2.89
Ov 3.5 2.5 3.59 3.11
Un 3.5 3.18 4.03 2.29
Goal-Goal 3.08 2.91 3.01
No Goal 2.59 9.34 1.97
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.52 5.11 2.46
NG+Un 2.5 2.81 9.34 2



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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