Heracles Vs Willem II

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Heracles and Willem II for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.01 3.57 3.47 1.85 2
Estim 2.95 3.77 2.53 1.45 3.21
Value % -15.85 -1.49 10.71 14.91 -18.85



Basic Data and latest results


Heracles basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 2 0 2 50 2 3 1 3




Heracles latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Waalwijk H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Cambuur A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 2 W O Gg
29 Aug Nijmegen H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Sparta Rotterdam A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug PSV Eindhoven H 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Willem II basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 5 3 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 3 3 0
At Away 2 1 0 78 2 1 2 1




Willem II latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep PSV Eindhoven H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Waalwijk A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Groningen H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Nijmegen A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Zwolle H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Vitesse A 3 0 W O Ng
15 Aug Feyenoord H 0 4 L O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Heracles (4-2-3-1) Willem II (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Janis Blaswich GK Timon Wellenreuther GK
Giacomo Quagliata DL Derrick K?hn DL
Mats Knoester DC Ulrik Jenssen DC
Marco Rente DC Freek Heerkens DC
Noah Fadiga DR Vincent Schippers DR
Luca de la Torre DMC Pol Llonch DMC
Lucas Schoofs DMC Driess Saddiki DMC
Delano Burgzorg AML Mats K?hlert AML
Rai Vloet AMC G?rkem Saglam AMC
Bilal Basacikoglu AMR Che Nunnely AMR
Kaj Sierhuis FW Kwasi Okyere Wriedt FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Heracles news and injuries


Sinan Bakis and Ismail Azzaoui are both pushing for starts after substitute appearances over RKC Waalwijk. Kasper Lunding is the only reported absentee for Heracles this weekend.
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Injured player Status
Kasper Lunding Jakobsen Out



Willem II news and injuries


There are three players missing for Willem II this weekend: Robbin Ruiter, Wesley Spieringhs and Leeroy Owusu.
.


Injured player Status
Robbin Ruiter Out
Wesley Spieringhs Out
Leeroy Owusu Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Heracles have seen over 2.5 goals in 16 of their last 19 matches against Willem II in all competitions.
  • Heracles have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 home matches against Willem II in all competitions.
  • Heracles have been winning at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 6 home matches against Willem II in all competitions.
  • Willem II have won 5 of their last 6 matches (Eredivisie).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Willem II’s last 6 away games (Eredivisie).
  • Willem II have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Heracles is -0.111 and for the Willem II is 0.837.
  • The home dynamic for the Heracles is 0.059 and the dynamic as a guest for the Willem II is 0.64.
  • The offensive ability for the Heracles is 0.171 and for the Willem II is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Heracles is -0.545 and for the Willem II is 0.03.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Heracles 19% 32% 21% 28%
Willem II 13% 34% 23% 30%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.57 goals and Willem II to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.58 goals and Willem II to score 1.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 40 0-1 7.63
1 9.43 2-3 2.38
2 5.52 4+ 2.23
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.15
4 4.2 Un 1.5 7.63
5 7.87 Ov 2.5 1.46
6+ 12.05 Un 2.5 3.21
Gg 1.43 Ov 3.5 2.23
NoG 3.36 Un 3.5 1.81


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.12 5.24 2.05
2-3 goals 3.09 3.89 2.39
4+ goals 2.78 3.42 2.87
Ov 1.5 2.92 3.63 2.61
Un 1.5 3.12 5.24 2.05
Ov 2.5 2.55 5.24 2.39
Un 2.5 4.46 2.35 2.86
Ov 3.5 2.78 3.42 2.87
Un 3.5 3.1 4.14 2.3
Goal-Goal 3.03 2.93 3.03
No Goal 2.76 11.92 1.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.57 4.53 2.57
NG+Un 2.5 2.91 11.92 1.87



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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