In this article I will analyze the game between Hertha and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Hertha basic data
Hertha latest results
|25 Sep||RB Leipzig||A||0||6||L||O||Ng|
|17 Sep||Greuther Furth||H||2||1||W||O||Gg|
|28 Aug||Bayern Munich||A||0||5||L||O||Ng|
|15 Aug||FC Koln||A||1||3||L||O||Gg|
Freiburg basic data
Freiburg latest results
|11 Sep||FC Koln||H||1||1||D||U||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Hertha (4-2-3-1)||Freiburg (3-5-1-1)|
|Alexander Schwolow||GK||Mark Flekken||GK|
|Peter Pekar?k||DL||Dominique Heintz||DC|
|Niklas Stark||DC||Nico Schlotterbeck||DC|
|Dedryck Boyata||DC||Philipp Lienhart||DC|
|Deyovaisio Zeefuik||DR||Lukas K?bler||DML|
|Santiago Ascacibar||DMC||Nicolas H?fler||MC|
|Kevin-Prince Boateng||DMC||Roland Sallai||MC|
|Marvin Plattenhardt||AML||Yannik Keitel||MC|
|Suat Serdar||AMC||Christian G?nter||DMR|
|Jurgen Ekkelenkamp||AMR||Vincenzo Grifo||AMC|
|Davie Selke||FW||Lucas H?ler||FW|
Hertha news and injuries
Dedryck Boyata is nearing a return from a thigh injury, but new signing Myziane Maolida from Nice remains a doubt, along with defender Jordan Torunarigha. Krzysztof Piatek is nearing a return from an ankle injury, while Marvin Plattenhardt is now fit. Lukas Kl?nter needs an operation and will be out for several weeks.
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp scored on his home debut 87 seconds after coming on as a substitute and could start here. Stevan Jovetic is nearing a return from a calf injury as well.
Another keeper, Rune Jarstein, will be eased back after a heart issue. Denmark U21 goalkeeper Oliver Christensen has been signed from Odense BK to provide competition between the sticks.
Freiburg news and injuries
. Promising youngster Kimberly Ezekwem has a muscle injury. Nicolas Hofler is over his foot injury, so Eggestein could lose his spot.
Nils Petersen has returned from a knee operation, Jonathan Schmid is on his way back from COVID-19, so Lukas K?bler could slot in on the left. Maximilian Eggestein will bolster midfield as record signing Baptiste Santamaria has moved back to France in a switch to Rennes.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Hertha Berlin’s last 7 games (Bundesliga).
- Hertha Berlin have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against Freiburg in all competitions.
- Freiburg are undefeated in their last 6 matches (Bundesliga).
- Hertha Berlin are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Freiburg in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Hertha is -0.281 and for the Freiburg is 0.504.
- The home dynamic for the Hertha is 0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Freiburg is 0.32.
- The offensive ability for the Hertha is -0.005 and for the Freiburg is 0.084.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Hertha is -1 and for the Freiburg is 0.202.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.19 goals and Freiburg to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.15 goals and Freiburg to score 1.52 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the guest team Freiburg to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|