Hertha Vs Freiburg

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Hertha and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.88 3.31 2.49 1.95 1.89
Estim 3.6 3.92 2.14 1.86 2.16
Value % -6.94 -4.7 6.57 2.48 -6.61



Basic Data and latest results


Hertha basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 4 6 6 0
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 0 1 50 2 2 2 0




Hertha latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep RB Leipzig A 0 6 L O Ng
17 Sep Greuther Furth H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Bochum A 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Bayern Munich A 0 5 L O Ng
21 Aug Wolfsburg H 1 2 L O Gg
15 Aug FC Koln A 1 3 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Freiburg basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 4 3 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2
At Away 1 2 0 56 1 1 1 2




Freiburg latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Augsburg H 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Mainz A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep FC Koln H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Stuttgart A 3 2 W O Gg
21 Aug Dortmund H 2 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Bielefeld A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Hertha (4-2-3-1) Freiburg (3-5-1-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Alexander Schwolow GK Mark Flekken GK
Peter Pekar?k DL Dominique Heintz DC
Niklas Stark DC Nico Schlotterbeck DC
Dedryck Boyata DC Philipp Lienhart DC
Deyovaisio Zeefuik DR Lukas K?bler DML
Santiago Ascacibar DMC Nicolas H?fler MC
Kevin-Prince Boateng DMC Roland Sallai MC
Marvin Plattenhardt AML Yannik Keitel MC
Suat Serdar AMC Christian G?nter DMR
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMR Vincenzo Grifo AMC
Davie Selke FW Lucas H?ler FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Hertha news and injuries


.
Dedryck Boyata is nearing a return from a thigh injury, but new signing Myziane Maolida from Nice remains a doubt, along with defender Jordan Torunarigha. Krzysztof Piatek is nearing a return from an ankle injury, while Marvin Plattenhardt is now fit. Lukas Kl?nter needs an operation and will be out for several weeks.
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp scored on his home debut 87 seconds after coming on as a substitute and could start here. Stevan Jovetic is nearing a return from a calf injury as well.
Another keeper, Rune Jarstein, will be eased back after a heart issue. Denmark U21 goalkeeper Oliver Christensen has been signed from Odense BK to provide competition between the sticks.


Injured player Status
Lukas Kl?nter Out
Myziane Maolida Out
Jordan Torunarigha Out
Krzysztof Piatek Doubtful
Rune Jarstein Out
Dedryck Boyata Doubtful
Deyovaisio Zeefuik Doubtful
Stevan Jovetic Doubtful



Freiburg news and injuries



. Promising youngster Kimberly Ezekwem has a muscle injury. Nicolas Hofler is over his foot injury, so Eggestein could lose his spot.
Nils Petersen has returned from a knee operation, Jonathan Schmid is on his way back from COVID-19, so Lukas K?bler could slot in on the left. Maximilian Eggestein will bolster midfield as record signing Baptiste Santamaria has moved back to France in a switch to Rennes.


Injured player Status
Kimberly Ezekwem Out
Jonathan Schmid Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Hertha Berlin’s last 7 games (Bundesliga).
  • Hertha Berlin have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against Freiburg in all competitions.
  • Freiburg are undefeated in their last 6 matches (Bundesliga).
  • Hertha Berlin are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Freiburg in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Hertha is -0.281 and for the Freiburg is 0.504.
  • The home dynamic for the Hertha is 0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Freiburg is 0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Hertha is -0.005 and for the Freiburg is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Hertha is -1 and for the Freiburg is 0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Hertha 30% 36% 20% 13%
Freiburg 22% 30% 24% 25%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.19 goals and Freiburg to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.15 goals and Freiburg to score 1.52 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the guest team Freiburg to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 4.22
1 5.85 2-3 2.1
2 4.42 4+ 3.47
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.65 Un 1.5 4.22
5 12.5 Ov 2.5 1.86
6+ 32.26 Un 2.5 2.16
Gg 1.83 Ov 3.5 3.47
NoG 2.19 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 3.59 2.58
2-3 goals 3.61 4.34 2.03
4+ goals 4.24 3.65 2.04
Ov 1.5 3.82 4.05 2.03
Un 1.5 3 3.59 2.58
Ov 2.5 3.46 6.82 1.77
Un 2.5 3.76 2.63 2.82
Ov 3.5 4.24 3.65 2.04
Un 3.5 3.38 4.06 2.18
Goal-Goal 4.23 2.89 2.39
No Goal 3.04 6.91 1.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.38 5.52 1.91
NG+Un 2.5 2.87 6.91 2.15



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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