Huesca Vs Tenerife

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Huesca and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.98 3.2 3.98 2.39 1.58
Estim 2.14 3.65 3.86 2.29 1.78
Value % -3.78 -3.85 0.78 1.83 -7.11



Basic Data and latest results


Huesca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 1 1 3




Huesca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Sociedad B A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
13 Sep Lugo A 2 3 L O Gg
06 Sep Oviedo H 1 2 L O Gg
27 Aug Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Cartagena H 2 0 W U Ng
13 Aug Eibar H 2 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Tenerife basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 2 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 1 1 58 3 2 2 2




Tenerife latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Almeria A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Mirandes H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Valladolid A 2 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Ponferradina H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Oviedo A 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Sp Gijon H 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Fuenlabrada A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Huesca is -0.148 and for the Tenerife is -0.052.
  • The home dynamic for the Huesca is 0.176 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tenerife is 0.2.
  • The offensive ability for the Huesca is 0.482 and for the Tenerife is 0.189.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Huesca is 0.202 and for the Tenerife is 0.433.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Huesca 23% 35% 26% 16%
Tenerife 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.33 goals and Tenerife to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.35 goals and Tenerife to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.76 0-1 3.36
1 4.69 2-3 1.98
2 3.76 4+ 5
3 4.2 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.36
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.77
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.35 3.51 3.47
2-3 goals 2.02 3.94 3.97
4+ goals 2.17 3.28 4.26
Ov 1.5 2.06 3.72 4.05
Un 1.5 2.35 3.51 3.47
Ov 2.5 1.77 7.18 3.37
Un 2.5 2.55 2.65 4.34
Ov 3.5 2.17 3.28 4.26
Un 3.5 2.13 3.77 3.77
Goal-Goal 2.61 2.58 4.36
No Goal 1.83 6.05 3.47
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.93 5.9 3.21
NG+Un 2.5 1.97 6.05 3.35



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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