Hull Vs Middlesbrough

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Hull and Middlesbrough for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.05 3.17 2.48 2.3 1.63
Estim 2.67 3.58 2.88 2.31 1.76
Value % 4.67 -3.61 -5.6 -0.19 -4.53



Basic Data and latest results


Hull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 2 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 2 3 13 2 4 2 3




Hull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Blackpool H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Stoke A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Sheffield United H 1 3 L O Gg
14 Sep Blackburn A 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Swansea A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Bournemouth H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Fulham A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Aug Derby H 0 1 L U Ng



Middlesbrough basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 1 5
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 2 33 2 3 0 5




Middlesbrough latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Sheffield United H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Reading A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Blackpool H 1 2 L O Gg
15 Sep Nott’m Forest A 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Coventry A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Blackburn H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Derby A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Aug QPR H 2 3 L O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Hull (4-2-3-1) Middlesbrough (3-4-1-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Matt Ingram GK Joe Lumley GK
Callum Elder DL Dael Fry DC
Jacob Greaves DC Grant Hall DC
Alfie Jones DC Lee Peltier DC
Joshua Emmanuel DR Marc Bola ML
Richard Smallwood DMC Jonny Howson MC
Greg Docherty DMC Patrick McNair MC
Keane Lewis-Potter AML Marcus Tavernier MR
George Moncur AMC Matt Crooks AMC
Mallik Wilks AMR Duncan Watmore FW
Tyler Smith FW Andraz Sporar FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Hull news and injuries



Josh Magennis and George Honeyman will return from action after the international break while Randell Williams is closing in on a return. Right-back Lewie Coyle was sent off late on against Blackpool so expect Josh Emmanuel to deputise this weekend. Two other changes are on the cards for the hosts with Richard Smallwood and Tyler Smith both pushing for recalls. .


Injured player Status
Tom Huddlestone Out
George Honeyman Out
Josh Magennis Out
Randell Williams Out
Lewie Coyle Out



Middlesbrough news and injuries



. Neil Warnock could make one change for the trip to Hull with centre-back Grant Hall replacing the experienced Sol Bamba. Right-back Djed Spence remains doubtful after missing the visit of Sheffield United.


Injured player Status
Marcus Browne Out
Anfernee Dijksteel Out
Onel Hern?ndez Out
Djed Spence Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Middlesbrough’s last 6 away games (Championship).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 7 of Hull’s last 8 games (Championship).
  • Hull have failed to win their last 9 matches (Championship).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Hull is -0.519 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.148.
  • The home dynamic for the Hull is -0.6 and the dynamic as a guest for the Middlesbrough is -0.224.
  • The offensive ability for the Hull is -0.762 and for the Middlesbrough is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Hull is -0.339 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.167.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Hull 33% 35% 15% 17%
Middlesbrough 36% 31% 18% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hull to score 1.03 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hull to score 1.17 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.47 0-1 2.89
1 4.39 2-3 2.26
2 4.52 4+ 4.72
3 4.52 Ov 1.5 1.53
4 7.52 Un 1.5 2.89
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.31
6+ 38.46 Un 2.5 1.76
Gg 2.33 Ov 3.5 4.72
NoG 1.75 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.7 2.93 3.46
2-3 goals 2.75 4.06 2.57
4+ goals 2.52 4 2.83
Ov 1.5 2.67 4.04 2.65
Un 1.5 2.7 2.93 3.46
Ov 2.5 2.26 8.17 2.3
Un 2.5 3.13 2.5 3.57
Ov 3.5 2.52 4 2.83
Un 3.5 2.73 3.47 2.9
Goal-Goal 3.33 2.65 3.09
No Goal 2.34 4.83 2.74
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.49 6.06 2.31
NG+Un 2.5 2.53 4.83 2.88



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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