In this article I will analyze the game between Hull and Middlesbrough for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Hull basic data
Hull latest results
|18 Sep||Sheffield United||H||1||3||L||O||Gg|
Middlesbrough basic data
Middlesbrough latest results
|28 Sep||Sheffield United||H||2||0||W||U||Ng|
|15 Sep||Nott’m Forest||A||2||0||W||U||Ng|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Hull (4-2-3-1)||Middlesbrough (3-4-1-2)|
|Matt Ingram||GK||Joe Lumley||GK|
|Callum Elder||DL||Dael Fry||DC|
|Jacob Greaves||DC||Grant Hall||DC|
|Alfie Jones||DC||Lee Peltier||DC|
|Joshua Emmanuel||DR||Marc Bola||ML|
|Richard Smallwood||DMC||Jonny Howson||MC|
|Greg Docherty||DMC||Patrick McNair||MC|
|Keane Lewis-Potter||AML||Marcus Tavernier||MR|
|George Moncur||AMC||Matt Crooks||AMC|
|Mallik Wilks||AMR||Duncan Watmore||FW|
|Tyler Smith||FW||Andraz Sporar||FW|
Hull news and injuries
Josh Magennis and George Honeyman will return from action after the international break while Randell Williams is closing in on a return. Right-back Lewie Coyle was sent off late on against Blackpool so expect Josh Emmanuel to deputise this weekend. Two other changes are on the cards for the hosts with Richard Smallwood and Tyler Smith both pushing for recalls. .
Middlesbrough news and injuries
. Neil Warnock could make one change for the trip to Hull with centre-back Grant Hall replacing the experienced Sol Bamba. Right-back Djed Spence remains doubtful after missing the visit of Sheffield United.
Betting information and prediction
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Middlesbrough’s last 6 away games (Championship).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 7 of Hull’s last 8 games (Championship).
- Hull have failed to win their last 9 matches (Championship).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Hull is -0.519 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.148.
- The home dynamic for the Hull is -0.6 and the dynamic as a guest for the Middlesbrough is -0.224.
- The offensive ability for the Hull is -0.762 and for the Middlesbrough is 0.053.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Hull is -0.339 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.167.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hull to score 1.03 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hull to score 1.17 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|