Las Palmas Vs Cartagena

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.04 3.23 4.02 2.32 1.64
Estim 2.02 3.76 4.2 2.21 1.83
Value % 0.49 -4.36 -1.07 2.15 -6.33



Basic Data and latest results


Las Palmas basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 2 0 67 4 4 2 2




Las Palmas latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Ponferradina H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Sep Burgos A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Ibiza H 1 1 D U Gg
05 Sep Mirandes A 2 4 L O Gg
27 Aug Huesca H 2 1 W O Gg
22 Aug Girona A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Valladolid H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Cartagena basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 4 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 0 3 25 2 3 1 3




Cartagena latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Fuenlabrada A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Lugo H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Oviedo A 0 2 L U Ng
04 Sep Sociedad B H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Aug Zaragoza A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Huesca A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Aug Almeria H 1 3 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Las Palmas is 0.185 and for the Cartagena is -0.015.
  • The home dynamic for the Las Palmas is 0.49 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cartagena is -0.52.
  • The offensive ability for the Las Palmas is 0.098 and for the Cartagena is 0.126.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Las Palmas is -0.253 and for the Cartagena is -0.288.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Las Palmas 21% 34% 26% 18%
Cartagena 38% 37% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.36 goals and Cartagena to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.42 goals and Cartagena to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.52
1 4.85 2-3 1.98
2 3.8 4+ 4.81
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.52
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 4.81
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.18 3.64 3.74
2-3 goals 1.92 4.02 4.36
4+ goals 2.06 3.3 4.73
Ov 1.5 1.96 3.78 4.46
Un 1.5 2.18 3.64 3.74
Ov 2.5 1.7 7.16 3.7
Un 2.5 2.39 2.68 4.8
Ov 3.5 2.06 3.3 4.73
Un 3.5 2.01 3.87 4.11
Goal-Goal 2.5 2.61 4.61
No Goal 1.69 6.47 3.91
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.86 5.83 3.43
NG+Un 2.5 1.84 6.47 3.69



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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