Leeds Vs Watford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leeds and Watford for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.76 3.92 4.68 1.7 2.22
Estim 2.4 3.94 3.03 1.85 2.18
Value % -15.15 -0.13 11.64 -4.77 0.83



Basic Data and latest results


Leeds basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 0 1 2 11 2 3 3 0




Leeds latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep West Ham H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Newcastle A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Liverpool H 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Burnley A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Everton H 2 2 D O Gg
14 Aug Man United A 1 5 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Watford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2




Watford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Newcastle H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Norwich A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Wolves H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Tottenham A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Brighton A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Aug Aston Villa H 3 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Leeds (4-1-4-1) Watford (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Illan Meslier GK Ben Foster GK
Junior Firpo DL Danny Rose DL
Liam Cooper DC Craig Cathcart DC
Pascal Struijk DC William Troost-Ekong DC
Jamie Shackleton DR Kiko Femen?a DR
Kalvin Phillips DMC Moussa Sissoko DMC
Jack Harrison ML Ozan Tufan DMC
Mateusz Klich MC Emmanuel Dennis AML
Stuart Dallas MC Tom Cleverley AMC
Raphinha MR Ismaila Sarr AMR
Rodrigo FW Joshua King FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Leeds news and injuries


Both are ruled out again here.
.
Pascal Struijk and Diego Llorente are back for Leeds, with the former completing a three-match ban and the latter over his latest injury. Charlie Cresswell will likely drop out of the team as a result. Jack Harrison replaced Dan James at half-time last time out and may take his spot from the off here.
Raphinha was forced off in Leeds’ 2-1 defeat to West Ham last weekend but is available for selection here. Patrick Bamford is out for another couple of weeks with an ankle injury, while Luke Ayling may require surgery for a problem in his knee.


Injured player Status
Robin Koch Out
Luke Ayling Out
Patrick Bamford Out
Diego Llorente Doubtful
Raphinha Doubtful



Watford news and injuries


Kiko Femenia was fit to start against Newcastle but didn’t have a good game and was subbed off.
. Jo?o Pedro made his first appearance of the season as a substitute last weekend but Watford have now lost midfielder Peter Etebo for several months due to a ruptured quad. Tom Cleverley was forced off at half-time against Newcastle last time out after feeling dizzy but he has returned to training since then.
Goalkeeper Daniel Bachmann is also back with the group but Ben Foster may still get the nod here.


Injured player Status
Peter Etebo Out
Tom Cleverley Doubtful
Daniel Bachmann Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches against Watford in all competitions.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Leeds’s last 5 home games (Premier League).
  • Watford have won their last 4 matches against Leeds in all competitions.
  • Watford have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 away matches against Leeds in all competitions.
  • Leeds have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches (Premier League).
  • Leeds have failed to win their last 6 matches (Premier League).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leeds is -0.504 and for the Watford is -0.163.
  • The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.671 and the dynamic as a guest for the Watford is -0.264.
  • The offensive ability for the Leeds is 0.513 and for the Watford is -0.368.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -1 and for the Watford is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leeds 28% 27% 20% 25%
Watford 28% 34% 22% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.89 goals and Watford to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.43 goals and Watford to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 4
1 5.85 2-3 2.22
2 4.81 4+ 3.33
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 5.78 Un 1.5 4
5 11.49 Ov 2.5 1.85
6+ 25 Un 2.5 2.18
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.33
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.43


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.25 3.16 2.66
2-3 goals 2.28 4.89 2.8
4+ goals 2.11 3.61 4
Ov 1.5 2.21 4.29 3.18
Un 1.5 3.25 3.16 2.66
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.53 3.06
Un 2.5 3.42 2.68 2.99
Ov 3.5 2.11 3.61 4
Un 3.5 2.55 4.09 2.75
Goal-Goal 2.47 2.96 3.89
No Goal 2.34 6.1 2.45
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 5.13 3.2
NG+Un 2.5 2.73 6.1 2.39



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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