In this article I will analyze the game between Leeds and Watford for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Leeds basic data
Leeds latest results
|25 Sep||West Ham||H||1||2||L||O||Gg|
|14 Aug||Man United||A||1||5||L||O||Gg|
Watford basic data
Watford latest results
|14 Aug||Aston Villa||H||3||2||W||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Leeds (4-1-4-1)||Watford (4-2-3-1)|
|Illan Meslier||GK||Ben Foster||GK|
|Junior Firpo||DL||Danny Rose||DL|
|Liam Cooper||DC||Craig Cathcart||DC|
|Pascal Struijk||DC||William Troost-Ekong||DC|
|Jamie Shackleton||DR||Kiko Femen?a||DR|
|Kalvin Phillips||DMC||Moussa Sissoko||DMC|
|Jack Harrison||ML||Ozan Tufan||DMC|
|Mateusz Klich||MC||Emmanuel Dennis||AML|
|Stuart Dallas||MC||Tom Cleverley||AMC|
Leeds news and injuries
Both are ruled out again here.
Pascal Struijk and Diego Llorente are back for Leeds, with the former completing a three-match ban and the latter over his latest injury. Charlie Cresswell will likely drop out of the team as a result. Jack Harrison replaced Dan James at half-time last time out and may take his spot from the off here.
Raphinha was forced off in Leeds’ 2-1 defeat to West Ham last weekend but is available for selection here. Patrick Bamford is out for another couple of weeks with an ankle injury, while Luke Ayling may require surgery for a problem in his knee.
Watford news and injuries
Kiko Femenia was fit to start against Newcastle but didn’t have a good game and was subbed off.
. Jo?o Pedro made his first appearance of the season as a substitute last weekend but Watford have now lost midfielder Peter Etebo for several months due to a ruptured quad. Tom Cleverley was forced off at half-time against Newcastle last time out after feeling dizzy but he has returned to training since then.
Goalkeeper Daniel Bachmann is also back with the group but Ben Foster may still get the nod here.
Betting information and prediction
- Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches against Watford in all competitions.
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Leeds’s last 5 home games (Premier League).
- Watford have won their last 4 matches against Leeds in all competitions.
- Watford have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 away matches against Leeds in all competitions.
- Leeds have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches (Premier League).
- Leeds have failed to win their last 6 matches (Premier League).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Leeds is -0.504 and for the Watford is -0.163.
- The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.671 and the dynamic as a guest for the Watford is -0.264.
- The offensive ability for the Leeds is 0.513 and for the Watford is -0.368.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -1 and for the Watford is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.89 goals and Watford to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Leeds to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.43 goals and Watford to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|