Leganes Vs Lugo

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leganes and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.61 3.69 5.88 2.36 1.6
Estim 2.07 3.7 4.03 2.25 1.8
Value % -13.8 -0.07 7.81 2.07 -6.94



Basic Data and latest results


Leganes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2




Leganes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Mirandes A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Amorebieta H 1 0 W U Ng
10 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Eibar A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Ibiza H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Aug Burgos H 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Sociedad B A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Lugo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1




Lugo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Cartagena A 1 2 L O Gg
13 Sep Huesca H 3 2 W O Gg
04 Sep Fuenlabrada A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Valladolid H 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Sociedad B H 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Oviedo A 2 2 D O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leganes is 0.059 and for the Lugo is -0.163.
  • The home dynamic for the Leganes is 0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lugo is -0.344.
  • The offensive ability for the Leganes is 0.617 and for the Lugo is 0.189.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leganes is -0.253 and for the Lugo is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leganes 22% 34% 26% 17%
Lugo 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.55 goals and Lugo to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.39 goals and Lugo to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.35 0-1 3.45
1 4.78 2-3 1.97
2 3.77 4+ 4.93
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.25 Un 1.5 3.45
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.93
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.27 3.58 3.58
2-3 goals 1.97 3.99 4.16
4+ goals 2.11 3.33 4.41
Ov 1.5 2.01 3.78 4.23
Un 1.5 2.27 3.58 3.58
Ov 2.5 1.73 7.3 3.5
Un 2.5 2.47 2.67 4.55
Ov 3.5 2.11 3.33 4.41
Un 3.5 2.06 3.83 3.93
Goal-Goal 2.55 2.61 4.45
No Goal 1.76 6.3 3.67
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 5.95 3.3
NG+Un 2.5 1.9 6.3 3.51



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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