In this article I will analyze the game between Lens and Reims for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Lens basic data
Lens latest results
|15 Aug||St Etienne||H||2||2||D||O||Gg|
Reims basic data
Reims latest results
|29 Aug||Paris SG||H||0||2||L||U||Ng|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Lens (3-4-1-2)||Reims (3-4-1-2)|
|Jean-Louis Leca||GK||Predrag Rajkovic||GK|
|Facundo Medina||DC||Yunis Abdelhamid||DC|
|Kevin Danso||DC||Wout Faes||DC|
|Jonathan Gradit||DC||Marshall Munetsi||DC|
|Przemyslaw Frankowski||ML||Ghislain Konan||ML|
|Seko Fofana||MC||Moussa Doumbia||MC|
|Cheick Oumar Doucour?||MC||Azor Matusiwa||MC|
|Jonathan Clauss||MR||Thomas Foket||MR|
|Ga?l Kakuta||AMC||Ilan Kebbal||AMC|
|Arnaud Kalimuendo||FW||Mitchell van Bergen||FW|
|Florian Sotoca||FW||Hugo Ekitike||FW|
Lens news and injuries
Jonathan Clauss was rested last time out but will be recalled here. Kevin Danso is back from suspension and should be back in the starting XI on Friday.
David Da Costa impressed off the bench last weekend and is now pushing for Gael Kakuta’s place in the team. .
Reims news and injuries
. Valon Berisha missed the win over Reims last Sunday and remains a doubt here. Andreaw Gravillon is suspended due to an accumulation of bookings.
Like he did on several occasions last season, Marshall Munetsi will likely drop in to defence on Friday. Hugo Etikite will surely be rewarded with a start here after a brace from the bench last weekend.
|El Bilal Tour?||Doubtful|
Betting information and prediction
- Lens have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
- Lens have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
- Lens are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Lens is 0.481 and for the Reims is 0.022.
- The home dynamic for the Lens is -0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reims is -0.016.
- The offensive ability for the Lens is 0.482 and for the Reims is 0.084.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Lens is -0.288 and for the Reims is -0.227.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.47 goals and Reims to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.24 goals and Reims to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|