Lens Vs Reims

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lens and Reims for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.83 3.47 4.78 2.3 1.65
Estim 2.24 3.61 3.61 2.51 1.66
Value % -10 -1.12 6.78 -3.64 -0.37



Basic Data and latest results


Lens basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 2 1 42 3 3 2 2




Lens latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Marseille A 3 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Strasbourg H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Lille H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Bordeaux A 3 2 W O Gg
29 Aug Lorient H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Monaco A 2 0 W U Ng
15 Aug St Etienne H 2 2 D O Gg
08 Aug Rennes A 1 1 D U Gg



Reims basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 2 1 42 3 2 1 3




Reims latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Nantes H 3 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Lille A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Lorient H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Rennes A 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Paris SG H 0 2 L U Ng
22 Aug Metz A 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Montpellier H 3 3 D O Gg
08 Aug Nice A 0 0 D U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Lens (3-4-1-2) Reims (3-4-1-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Jean-Louis Leca GK Predrag Rajkovic GK
Facundo Medina DC Yunis Abdelhamid DC
Kevin Danso DC Wout Faes DC
Jonathan Gradit DC Marshall Munetsi DC
Przemyslaw Frankowski ML Ghislain Konan ML
Seko Fofana MC Moussa Doumbia MC
Cheick Oumar Doucour? MC Azor Matusiwa MC
Jonathan Clauss MR Thomas Foket MR
Ga?l Kakuta AMC Ilan Kebbal AMC
Arnaud Kalimuendo FW Mitchell van Bergen FW
Florian Sotoca FW Hugo Ekitike FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Lens news and injuries


Jonathan Clauss was rested last time out but will be recalled here. Kevin Danso is back from suspension and should be back in the starting XI on Friday.
David Da Costa impressed off the bench last weekend and is now pushing for Gael Kakuta’s place in the team. .


Injured player Status
Corentin Jean Out



Reims news and injuries



. Valon Berisha missed the win over Reims last Sunday and remains a doubt here. Andreaw Gravillon is suspended due to an accumulation of bookings.
Like he did on several occasions last season, Marshall Munetsi will likely drop in to defence on Friday. Hugo Etikite will surely be rewarded with a start here after a brace from the bench last weekend.


Injured player Status
Arb?r Zeneli Out
Andreaw Gravillon Out
Moussa Doumbia Doubtful
Valon Berisha Doubtful
Kaj Sierhuis Doubtful
El Bilal Tour? Doubtful
Mathieu Cafaro Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Lens have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
  • Lens have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
  • Lens are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Reims in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lens is 0.481 and for the Reims is 0.022.
  • The home dynamic for the Lens is -0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reims is -0.016.
  • The offensive ability for the Lens is 0.482 and for the Reims is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lens is -0.288 and for the Reims is -0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lens 27% 34% 28% 12%
Reims 40% 36% 14% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.47 goals and Reims to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.24 goals and Reims to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.35 0-1 2.99
1 4.39 2-3 2.04
2 3.75 4+ 5.68
3 4.5 Ov 1.5 1.5
4 8.62 Un 1.5 2.99
5 21.28 Ov 2.5 2.51
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.66
Gg 2.27 Ov 3.5 5.68
NoG 1.79 Un 3.5 1.21


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.54 3.13 3.49
2-3 goals 1.9 4.11 4.33
4+ goals 3.09 3.45 2.59
Ov 1.5 2.12 3.91 3.67
Un 1.5 2.54 3.13 3.49
Ov 2.5 1.96 7.8 2.76
Un 2.5 2.48 2.66 4.53
Ov 3.5 3.09 3.45 2.59
Un 3.5 2.12 3.65 3.94
Goal-Goal 2.81 2.59 3.87
No Goal 1.93 5.22 3.43
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 6.31 2.82
NG+Un 2.5 1.99 5.22 3.63



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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