Lille Vs Marseille

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lille and Marseille for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.45 3.33 2.95 2.09 1.8
Estim 2.58 3.51 3.05 2.66 1.6
Value % -2.06 -1.54 -1.11 -10.25 6.94



Basic Data and latest results


Lille basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 6 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0




Lille latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Strasbourg A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Reims H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Lens A 0 1 L U Ng
10 Sep Lorient A 1 2 L O Gg
29 Aug Montpellier H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug St Etienne A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Nice H 0 4 L O Ng
08 Aug Metz A 3 3 D O Gg



Marseille basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 5 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2




Marseille latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Lens H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Angers A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Rennes H 2 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Monaco A 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug St Etienne H 3 1 W O Gg
15 Aug Bordeaux H 2 2 D O Gg
08 Aug Montpellier A 3 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lille is 0.2 and for the Marseille is 0.281.
  • The home dynamic for the Lille is 0.349 and the dynamic as a guest for the Marseille is 0.616.
  • The offensive ability for the Lille is 0.513 and for the Marseille is 0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lille is -1 and for the Marseille is 0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lille 34% 35% 22% 9%
Marseille 42% 34% 2% 21%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lille to score 1.28 goals and Marseille to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lille to score 1.07 goals and Marseille to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.09 0-1 2.49
1 3.83 2-3 2.4
2 4.52 4+ 5.56
3 5.1 Ov 1.5 1.68
4 9.01 Un 1.5 2.49
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.66
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.61
Gg 2.6 Ov 3.5 5.56
NoG 1.63 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.77 2.85 3.47
2-3 goals 2 3.5 4.69
4+ goals 5.45 7.2 1.48
Ov 1.5 2.47 4.15 2.83
Un 1.5 2.77 2.85 3.47
Ov 2.5 2.54 15.04 1.85
Un 2.5 2.61 2.4 5.02
Ov 3.5 5.45 7.2 1.48
Un 3.5 2.31 3.15 4
Goal-Goal 3.5 2.67 2.94
No Goal 2.22 4.35 3.13
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.42 10.64 2.03
NG+Un 2.5 2.11 4.35 4.06



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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