Lincoln Vs Plymouth

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lincoln and Plymouth for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.38 3.39 2.92 1.93 1.91
Estim 2.96 3.94 2.45 1.89 2.12
Value % -8.23 -4.12 6.57 1.1 -5.19



Basic Data and latest results


Lincoln basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 2 33 2 4 1 3




Lincoln latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Morecambe A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Burton A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Ipswich H 0 1 L U Ng
14 Sep Rotherham H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Cambridge A 5 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Oxford A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Wycombe A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Bolton H 0 1 L U Ng



Plymouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 1 58 3 2 2 2




Plymouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Crewe H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Doncaster H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Portsmouth A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep AFC Wimbledon A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Sheffield Weds H 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Fleetwood Town H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Shrewsbury A 3 0 W O Ng
17 Aug Cambridge H 1 1 D U Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Lincoln (4-3-3) Plymouth (3-5-2)
Player Pos Player Pos
Joshua Griffiths GK Michael Cooper GK
Jamie Robson DL Brendan Galloway DC
Timothy Eyoma DC Dan Scarr DC
Lewis Montsma DC James Wilson DC
Regan Poole DR Conor Grant DML
Lewis Fiorini MC Jordan Houghton MC
Lasse S?rensen MC Ryan Broom MC
Teddy Bishop MC Panutche Camar? MC
Anthony Scully FWL Joe Edwards DMR
Dan N’Lundulu FW Ryan Hardie FW
Hakeeb Adelakun FWR Luke Jephcott FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Lincoln news and injuries


Liam Bridcutt, Chris Maguire and Tom Hopper all missed out at Morecambe in midweek and remain majorly doubtful here.
.


Injured player Status
Conor McGrandles Out
Tom Hopper Doubtful
Chris Maguire Doubtful
Liam Bridcutt Doubtful



Plymouth news and injuries



. Plymouth are likely to stick with the same XI that’s served them so well in recent weeks.


Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Plymouth are undefeated in their last 9 matches (League One).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Lincoln City’s last 6 home games (League One).
  • Lincoln City have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Plymouth in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lincoln is -0.17 and for the Plymouth is 0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Lincoln is -0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is 0.28.
  • The offensive ability for the Lincoln is -0.036 and for the Plymouth is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lincoln is -1 and for the Plymouth is -0.288.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lincoln 33% 26% 24% 17%
Plymouth 21% 38% 24% 18%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.36 goals and Plymouth to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.26 goals and Plymouth to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 4.08
1 5.65 2-3 2.11
2 4.42 4+ 3.56
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 5.95 Un 1.5 4.08
5 12.05 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 33.33 Un 2.5 2.12
Gg 1.88 Ov 3.5 3.56
NoG 2.14 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.54 3.6 1.99
2-3 goals 2.64 4.83 2.41
4+ goals 2.7 3.19 3.16
Ov 1.5 2.66 4.05 2.65
Un 1.5 4.54 3.6 1.99
Ov 2.5 2.28 6 2.54
Un 2.5 4.49 2.84 2.35
Ov 3.5 2.7 3.19 3.16
Un 3.5 3.08 4.33 2.25
Goal-Goal 2.71 2.86 3.55
No Goal 3.31 6.87 1.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.21 4.93 2.89
NG+Un 2.5 3.55 6.87 1.86



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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