In this article I will analyze the game between Liverpool and Man City for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Liverpool basic data
Liverpool latest results
|18 Sep||Crystal Palace||H||3||0||W||O||Ng|
Man City basic data
Man City latest results
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Liverpool (4-3-3)||Man City (4-3-3)|
|Andrew Robertson||DL||Jo?o Cancelo||DL|
|Virgil van Dijk||DC||Aymeric Laporte||DC|
|Joel Matip||DC||R?ben Dias||DC|
|James Milner||DR||Kyle Walker||DR|
|Curtis Jones||MC||Phil Foden||MC|
|Jordan Henderson||MC||Bernardo Silva||MC|
|Sadio Man?||FWL||Jack Grealish||FWL|
|Diogo Jota||FW||Kevin De Bruyne||FW|
|Mohamed Salah||FWR||Gabriel Jesus||FWR|
Liverpool news and injuries
Joe Gomez and Ibrahima Konate are on standby if required. Roberto Firmino scored twice off the bench in midweek and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he started here in place of Diogo Jota for his work rate.
Jurgen Klopp will hope Joel Matip and Virgil van Dijk can come through three games in a week unscathed.
Curtis Jones deserves to start once again after some impressive displays but Naby Keita is back available for Liverpool. James Milner will keep his place at right-back with Trent Alexander-Arnold set to miss out for the second game running.
. Thiago is sidelined.
Man City news and injuries
. Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez are both expected to drop out of the starting XI.
Gabriel Jesus and Ferran Torres are waiting in the wings to start.
Jack Grealish has been an ever-present for City this season but there were signs of fatigue against PSG on Wednesday. Phil Foden was benched against Paris Saint-Germain in midweek but will start here, potentially pushing Kevin De Bruyne into a false nine position. John Stones is still waiting to make his first appearance of the season for Manchester City.
Betting information and prediction
- Man City have won 14 of their last 16 away matches (Premier League).
- Man City have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches (Premier League).
- Liverpool are undefeated in their last 16 matches (Premier League).
- Liverpool have scored at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 11 matches (Premier League).
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Liverpool’s last 3 games (Premier League).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Man City’s last 3 away games (Premier League).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Liverpool is 0.644 and for the Man City is 0.541.
- The home dynamic for the Liverpool is 0.608 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 0.376.
- The offensive ability for the Liverpool is 1 and for the Man City is 0.084.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Liverpool is 0.485 and for the Man City is 1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.29 goals and Man City to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.46 goals and Man City to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|