In this article I will analyze the game between Lorient and Clermont for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Lorient basic data
Lorient latest results
|08 Aug||St Etienne||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
Clermont basic data
Clermont latest results
|11 Sep||Paris SG||A||0||4||L||O||Ng|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Lorient (3-5-2)||Clermont (4-2-3-1)|
|Paul Nardi||GK||Arthur Desmas||GK|
|Moritz Jenz||DC||Vital N’Simba||DL|
|Julien Laporte||DC||Florent Ogier||DC|
|Houboulang Mendes||DC||C?dric Hountondji||DC|
|Vincent Le Goff||DML||Akim Zedadka||DR|
|Thomas Monconduit||MC||Johan Gastien||DMC|
|Fabien Lemoine||MC||Jonathan Iglesias||DMC|
|Enzo Le Fee||MC||Elbasan Rashani||AML|
|Igor Silva||DMR||Jason Berthomier||AMC|
|Terem Moffi||FW||Jodel Dossou||AMR|
|Armand Laurient?||FW||Mohamed Bayo||FW|
Lorient news and injuries
Laurent Abergel’s place in midfield will likely be taken by Thomas Monconduit. Moritz Jenz is back from suspension and should start in defence. Reserve striker Adrian Grbic is unavailable for the hosts with an ankle injury.
Fabien Lemoine is fit again after featuring against Lyon at the weekend.
Clermont news and injuries
Elbasan Rashani appear to have cemented a starting role ahead of Jim Allevinah.
. Pierre-Yves Hamel won’t feature here as part of his loan deal.
Betting information and prediction
- Lorient have won their last 7 home matches (Ligue 1).
- Lorient have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches against Clermont Foot in all competitions.
- Lorient have been winning at both half time and full time in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Ligue 1).
- Clermont Foot have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 away matches (Ligue 1).
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Clermont Foot’s last 6 games (Ligue 1).
- Lorient have won with a 1 goal margin in their last 4 home matches (Ligue 1).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Lorient’s last 3 games (Ligue 1).
- Clermont Foot have failed to win their last 6 matches (Ligue 1).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Lorient is 0.207 and for the Clermont is -0.541.
- The home dynamic for the Lorient is 0.922 and the dynamic as a guest for the Clermont is -0.32.
- The offensive ability for the Lorient is 0.513 and for the Clermont is 0.021.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Lorient is -0.167 and for the Clermont is -1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.37 goals and Clermont to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.78 goals and Clermont to score 0.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Lorient to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|