Lorient Vs Clermont

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lorient and Clermont for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.43 3.48 3 1.94 1.95
Estim 1.31 6.06 14.49 2.43 1.7
Value % 35.18 -12.23 -26.43 -10.39 7.54



Basic Data and latest results


Lorient basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 0 3
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2




Lorient latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Lyon A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Nice H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Reims A 0 0 D U Ng
10 Sep Lille H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Lens A 2 2 D O Gg
22 Aug Montpellier A 1 3 L O Gg
13 Aug Monaco H 1 0 W U Ng
08 Aug St Etienne A 1 1 D U Gg



Clermont basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 4 6 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 2 3 3 1




Clermont latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Monaco H 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Rennes A 0 6 L O Ng
19 Sep Brest H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Paris SG A 0 4 L O Ng
29 Aug Metz H 2 2 D O Gg
22 Aug Lyon A 3 3 D O Gg
15 Aug Troyes H 2 0 W U Ng
08 Aug Bordeaux A 2 0 W U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Lorient (3-5-2) Clermont (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Paul Nardi GK Arthur Desmas GK
Moritz Jenz DC Vital N’Simba DL
Julien Laporte DC Florent Ogier DC
Houboulang Mendes DC C?dric Hountondji DC
Vincent Le Goff DML Akim Zedadka DR
Thomas Monconduit MC Johan Gastien DMC
Fabien Lemoine MC Jonathan Iglesias DMC
Enzo Le Fee MC Elbasan Rashani AML
Igor Silva DMR Jason Berthomier AMC
Terem Moffi FW Jodel Dossou AMR
Armand Laurient? FW Mohamed Bayo FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Lorient news and injuries


Laurent Abergel’s place in midfield will likely be taken by Thomas Monconduit. Moritz Jenz is back from suspension and should start in defence. Reserve striker Adrian Grbic is unavailable for the hosts with an ankle injury.
.
Fabien Lemoine is fit again after featuring against Lyon at the weekend.


Injured player Status
J?r?my Morel Out
Adrian Grbic Out
Laurent Abergel Out



Clermont news and injuries


Elbasan Rashani appear to have cemented a starting role ahead of Jim Allevinah.
. Pierre-Yves Hamel won’t feature here as part of his loan deal.


Injured player Status
Pierre-Yves Hamel Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Lorient have won their last 7 home matches (Ligue 1).
  • Lorient have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches against Clermont Foot in all competitions.
  • Lorient have been winning at both half time and full time in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Ligue 1).
  • Clermont Foot have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 away matches (Ligue 1).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Clermont Foot’s last 6 games (Ligue 1).
  • Lorient have won with a 1 goal margin in their last 4 home matches (Ligue 1).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Lorient’s last 3 games (Ligue 1).
  • Clermont Foot have failed to win their last 6 matches (Ligue 1).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lorient is 0.207 and for the Clermont is -0.541.
  • The home dynamic for the Lorient is 0.922 and the dynamic as a guest for the Clermont is -0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Lorient is 0.513 and for the Clermont is 0.021.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lorient is -0.167 and for the Clermont is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lorient 14% 26% 28% 32%
Clermont 83% 4% 9% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.37 goals and Clermont to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.78 goals and Clermont to score 0.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Lorient to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.62 0-1 2.96
1 4.5 2-3 1.78
2 3.98 4+ 9.8
3 3.23 Ov 1.5 1.51
4 20.41 Un 1.5 2.96
5 25.64 Ov 2.5 2.43
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.7
Gg 6.76 Ov 3.5 9.8
NoG 1.17 Un 3.5 1.11


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.56 2.91 56.33
2-3 goals 1.1 51 13.68
4+ goals 2.43 2.68 4.64
Ov 1.5 1.2 13.53 10.52
Un 1.5 1.56 2.91 56.33
Ov 2.5 1.28 10.84 8.08
Un 2.5 1.33 4.64 32.72
Ov 3.5 2.43 2.68 4.64
Un 3.5 1.24 7.08 19.13
Goal-Goal 2.74 3.02 3.29
No Goal 1.2 7.35 35.54
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.54 3.61 3.04
NG+Un 2.5 1.3 7.35 32.11



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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