Luton Vs Huddersfield

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Luton and Huddersfield for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.15 3.46 3.41 2.02 1.85
Estim 2.54 3.7 2.98 2 2
Value % -7.14 -1.87 4.23 0.5 -4.05



Basic Data and latest results


Luton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 3 0
At Home 2 2 1 53 3 2 4 1




Luton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Sep Coventry H 5 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Bournemouth A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Swansea H 3 3 D O Gg
15 Sep Bristol City A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Blackburn A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Sheffield United H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Birmingham H 0 5 L O Ng
17 Aug Barnsley A 1 0 W U Ng



Huddersfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 4 4 3 2




Huddersfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Blackburn H 3 2 W O Gg
25 Sep Swansea A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Nott’m Forest H 0 2 L U Ng
14 Sep Blackpool A 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Stoke A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Reading H 4 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Sheffield United A 2 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Preston H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Luton is 0.015 and for the Huddersfield is -0.015.
  • The home dynamic for the Luton is 0.2 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.032.
  • The offensive ability for the Luton is 0.617 and for the Huddersfield is -0.021.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Luton is -0.227 and for the Huddersfield is -0.313.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Luton 24% 34% 29% 14%
Huddersfield 30% 29% 30% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.43 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Luton to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.32 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 4.1
1 5.85 2-3 1.97
2 3.91 4+ 4
3 3.97 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.17 Un 1.5 4.1
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 1.99
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 2
Gg 1.89 Ov 3.5 4
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.42 3.34 3.49
2-3 goals 2.4 5.24 2.55
4+ goals 3.09 2.5 3.62
Ov 1.5 2.59 3.85 2.83
Un 1.5 2.42 3.34 3.49
Ov 2.5 2.44 5.02 2.56
Un 2.5 2.66 2.94 3.52
Ov 3.5 3.09 2.5 3.62
Un 3.5 2.4 4.42 2.8
Goal-Goal 3.23 2.69 3.14
No Goal 2.05 6.47 2.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.64 4.33 2.56
NG+Un 2.5 2.14 6.47 2.84



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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